- According to the Banque de France, in 2020, GDP should drop by 10% due to the drop in activity caused by the Covid-19. The institution expects a strong recovery from 2021 for a return to pre-crisis levels in 2022.
- For some economists interviewed by 20 Minutes , 2021 will nevertheless remain a difficult year, despite a fairly marked recovery in consumption with the deconfinement.
- The government's economic support measures and consumer behavior will play a key role.
Not "V" growth, but almost. The Banque de France, which published its economic forecasts on Tuesday, expects a rather dynamic recovery in the French economy after the Covid-19 pandemic. In 2021, the institution forecasts growth of 7%, then 4% in 2022. What catch up with the record fall of 10% of GDP expected in 2020, to return to pre-crisis levels in two years.
An optimistic scenario? With the deconfinement, the French economy takes on colors. As of May, activity "has been able to start again in most sectors", notes the Banque de France, with a "marked revival" in the automobile, rubber-plastic, textiles and even electrical equipment, whose activity had been halted during containment. In terms of services, auto repair, transport and also temporary work have resumed.
Consumption is also picking up. Households have started shopping again. In the first week of deconfinement, with the reopening of shops, INSEE noted a 6% lag compared to pre-crisis levels, in its latest economic situation. As a sign of this recovery, banking transactions have multiplied.
Will households consume their savings?
But catching up is actually just getting started. “The purchase of everyday consumer goods has resumed. People return to the hairdresser, consume in retail stores, agrees Anne-Sophie Alsif, chief economist at the International Bureau of Economic Forecasting (Bipe). But the question is whether they will make more sustainable purchases ”. In other words: cars, household appliances, high-tech products, real estate…
In France, consumption is both the first condition for recovery, but also the big unknown in the coming months. The more so as the government does not plan, for the moment, to support more the request (via a fall of VAT, for example), maintaining the suspense on its plan of “revival” announced in September.
However, "this is the first indicator we look at in France, because our growth is based on domestic consumption", adds Anne-Sophie Alsif. The problem is that households could be tempted not to consume by anticipating harder times in the future: tax increases, unemployment or even inflation… According to the Banque de France, it is this expenditure “forced” savings, accumulated during confinement, which would accelerate recovery.
Business investment spurs recovery
That's not all: on the supply side, everything is not settled. "Health standards are a problem," says Arno Fontaine of the think tank BSI Economics. We see it in restaurants, but also in businesses and industries, it is extremely heavy, and it leads to an extremely high cost increase ”. The prospect of a second wave of epidemics in the fall, in the absence of a vaccine, also curbs companies.
Furthermore, with accounts that have turned red, companies, which have had to go into debt more, can no longer invest. Enough to lead again a clear rebound in 2021. "The forecasts of the Bank of France are slightly optimistic for 2021", therefore believes Arno Fontaine. Same skepticism on the side of Anne Sophie Alsif, du Bipe: she expects + 4% in 2021, against + 7% for the Banque de France.
The weight of services, an asset for the recovery?
Nevertheless, the two economists agree on the return to the pre-crisis level in 2022, in line with the Banque de France. But rather according to a more winding “U” curve. “The 2008 crisis had consequences for many years because there were millions of bankruptcies, with less reaction from the state side. There, however, we have particularly strong measures to support the economy, ”said Arno Fontaine, referring in particular to the partial unemployment scheme, the various postponements or cancellations of charges granted to companies, as well as sectoral support plans tourism, automotive, aeronautics ...). This Wednesday, a third amending finance bill will also be presented to the Council of Ministers, incorporating new government budget measures.
A country particularly affected by the pandemic, France also has a paradoxical advantage: unlike Germany, it is less dependent on foreign trade, which could durably weigh down industry across the Rhine. "It is not from the manufacturing industry that the recovery will come in France, but from the services," says Anne-Sophie Alsif. Tourism, catering, culture ... These sectors, if they count less than industry in the wealth produced, are also those which have suffered the most from the crisis in France. Hence their key role in the future catch-up and a certain resilience of the French economy, according to the economist.
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- Economic crisis
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