Philippe Aghion answers THE WORLD by phone and has grown accustomed to tools like Zoom during the Parisian confinement, but prefers email, text. This is how this French economist maintains correspondence with President Emmanuel Macron, with whom he has come to work side by side for the preparation of electoral programs. This professor at the Collège de Paris, professor at the London School of Economics and visiting professor at Havard does not have certainties about the expected recovery ("oh, my God, I don't know"), although he does shed light on this crisis and the growth models Linked to technology, a line of study based on the work of Joseph Schumpeter that has earned him, along with Peter Howitt, the latest BBVA Foundation Frontiers of Knowledge Award in the category of Economics, Finance and Business Management.

Why was a new growth analysis model needed? The dominant theory was the neoclassical model, but it did not explain everything you need to know about growth. We have created a new model, Schumpeterian, that introduces innovation to address this issue. There are three main ideas: the innovation you get depends on what you have previously; Innovation never comes from heaven, but from the entrepreneurial nature of companies that have the prospect of obtaining dividends from a monopoly, a return conditioned on aspects such as taxation or competition; and, as a third factor, the fact that innovation is a constructive and destructive process, a conflict between the new and the old, and the old wants to prevail and not be replaced. What hints of innovation does an economy as punished as the The government has a very important role as an investor. The Cold War, for example, was a fantastic catalyst for innovation in the United States. The Government must act as an investor, but also as an insurer, for example through subsidy systems, and also in the event of bankruptcies, for which fiscal and monetary policies are necessary. Both papers are required and the Covid-19 has put it on the table. For example, in France we have not been as good as the Germans in investing in medical supplies. On the other hand, Germany provides social coverage that distances it from the drama of the United States, where if you lose your job you end up on the street, dead. Likewise, if you want economic activity to recover, you need to give guarantees to companies. The coronavirus has reaffirmed all this. Is there enough money not to traditionally leave important sectors, such as tourism in Spain, and at the same time delve into technology? What seems clear is that you have to act on both sides, in the demand and supply. If you don't innovate, you run out of demand, and without demand you can never innovate. His work with Howitt argues that any technological change that drives long-term growth "comes from 'shocks' that alter economic activity in the short term." In the midst of this immense 'shock', what can we expect from technology and growth? We are already facing new products and competitors, by teleworking. Zoom is a fantastic app, so in the future I will think twice about meeting a person. I also like to see Paris without pollution, for example, and I believe that the coronavirus will have an impact on values ​​and demands on the environment. As for technology, there will be a strong boost in general and artificial intelligence in particular, for example in the traces that are already being done for health reasons. Therefore, we must rethink what we import from China to our countries. We have gone too far with outsourcing and this crisis has revealed this. I am not saying that we stop globalization, but it is true that we must monitor supplies in key sectors, as has been seen in the comparison of supplies of medical equipment in France and Germany [Aghion has recently studied these cases in addition to analyzing the impact of artificial intelligence in growth and employment]. Is there a risk that artificial intelligence and automation will get a bad press now that unemployment is rising? In the industrial revolution, growth in unemployment was anticipated and then did not take place. Automation, as I have studied in France, does not take away jobs, it creates them. Better products are generated and therefore new demand. In the new world, will barriers increase and will Donald Trump's model be imposed on the United States against other countries, especially China? I do not encourage to imitate Trump, but I do to create a European project. In sectors such as energy or health, Europe must be innovative and very proactive in its investments. Europe is a tower of Babel and it is very difficult to reach any type of agreement. We have a Central Bank and that is very good, but it is very difficult to make joint decisions. If we do not work together, the US and China will wipe us off the map. What is your opinion about Trump's policies? We do not have a very cooperative USA. My hope is that, with the coronavirus, he will not be reelected. Climate change, taxation ... You need alliances with the United States, but they are very difficult to achieve while he is in the White House. You cannot work with the current leader, so I hope there will be a new one. There is a debate in the EU about the European champions. The European Commission seems more reluctant to allow mergers than the US authorities or, of course, the Chinese. Are those who criticize this policy right? In mergers there is an obsession with market share. The main criterion for allowing a merger should be that of innovation. You have the example of Siemens-Alstom, a German company and a French one. The European Commission prohibited a merger based on market share criteria, something wrong, as William Baumol has already stated in the theory of disputed markets: there can be competitive behaviors even in monopolistic markets. The railway was going to be a disputed market, because at any time a Chinese company [the giant CRRC] can break in. Although Siemens-Alstom accumulated share, the market was still disputed. Should market share be considered globally? Yes, of course. Stagnation, inflation, deflation ... What will be the main evil of those to come? It is a new crisis and the only way to face it is by cooperating. We must act on demand and supply, as I have already said. The question is who pays for all this. Inflation may go up, but I don't see it so clearly. There is a sector in which inflation can rise: real estate. My big concern is that a bubble is created there. I don't see any other inflation risks. People are going to want to save and they are not going to be in a hurry to spend. People are going to be cautious and that is going to keep inflation low.

In accordance with the criteria of The Trust Project

Know more

  • China
  • France
  • European Comission
  • Europe
  • Germany
  • Paris
  • Spain
  • Donald trump

INELhe first truth of the Government's Data Covid: where they have moved the most, have died the most from coronaviu¡rus

TurismoEspaña prohibits the entry of foreigners from outside the EU until June 15

HistoryEverything the EU can learn from its past to overcome the Covid-19 crisis