China News Service, May 15 (Xinhua) held a press conference on the 15th to introduce the operation of the national economy in April 2020. At the meeting, Liu Aihua, director of the Department of National Economic Comprehensive Statistics and spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, made judgments on the future economic operation trend and expressed confidence, confidence and challenge.
Data figure: A garment factory produces protective clothing. China News Agency reporter Wang Dongming
The current foreign epidemic situation is still spreading. Under the normalization of domestic epidemic prevention and control, with regard to the question of whether the economic operation in the second quarter can be stabilized and how to treat the economic trend in the next stage, Liu Aihua said that from the data for two consecutive months Judgment, the judgment of the future trend is summarized into three points.
First, have confidence. Liu Aihua said that this confidence came from a long-term accumulation of a complete industrial system, increasingly perfect infrastructure, and a large market size. These advantages have not been seriously injured under the impact of a severe epidemic, have not undergone fundamental changes, and have even played a very important supporting role in the process of combating the epidemic.
Liu Aihua introduced that in the past few months in the fight against the epidemic, important industries that have a bearing on national economy and people's livelihood have always maintained continuous production, medical supplies have grown rapidly, and the daily necessities have achieved a stable supply. The basic livelihood of 1.4 billion people has been effectively guaranteed In practice.
The bottom line is that the current trend of transformation and upgrading has been basically established. From the operation of the main indicators in April, we can also see that the fields related to new kinetic energy have maintained a growth trend under the impact of the epidemic, and are constantly developing and growing. Under the epidemic situation, the contrarian growth was achieved, so the confidence also came from the establishment of transformation and upgrading, and the continuous development and growth of new kinetic energy.
Second, have confidence. Liu Aihua believes that confidence comes from a series of policies and measures that have achieved positive results since the occurrence of the epidemic. 3. The economy has been recovering and improving for two consecutive months in April, which also reflects the resilience of economic growth, and also adds more confidence to further increase the macro hedging policy and further promote the resumption of production.
From the perspective of some leading indicators, for example, the total investment of newly started projects in investment from January to April has changed from negative to positive, from a decrease of 22% in the previous month to an increase of 1.1%, indicating that the investment in project reserves and capital guarantees All have improved. From the perspective of electricity consumption, industrial electricity consumption has turned positive in April. From the latest monitoring results in early May, the increase in electricity consumption continues to pick up slightly. Judging from these leading indicators, the momentum of sustained economic recovery and improvement is conditional and based.
Third, there are challenges. According to Liu Aihua's analysis, the momentum of the spread of the overseas epidemic has not yet been effectively controlled, and the impact of the epidemic on the global economy is still in the process of complex development and evolution. From the domestic point of view, the epidemic prevention and control has achieved significant strategic results, but from an economic perspective, this recovery momentum has not returned to a comprehensive normal level, employment pressure is still relatively large, and enterprises have more difficulties in production and operation. There are still many risk challenges. Therefore, we must maintain bottom-line thinking and enhance risk awareness. On the one hand, we must pay close attention to the implementation of the macro hedging policy that has been issued before, and on the other hand, we must adjust the response policy in a timely manner according to the changes in the situation and the demands of enterprises, and promote the economy to return to normal.