The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has issued a new analysis indicating the extent to which the air travel sector has been affected by the Corona Virus (Covid-19), which has extended to the medium term with long and international flights significantly affected, while quarantine restrictions imposed on arrival may compromise the confidence of travelers .
The analysis indicates that the adoption of a unified, multi-level, global approach based on risk assessment for biosecurity is a key factor in restarting the sector.
Scenes (future scenarios) for air travel, according to the analysis of the Union and the tourist economies:
The main scene:
It depends on the return of travel within the local markets during the third quarter of the year, with a slow opening for international travel, which will limit the recovery of air travel despite the fact that most expectations indicate a strong economic recovery at the end of this year and during 2021.
It is expected that the demand in the year 2021 for global travel (measured by passenger revenue in km) will decrease to 24% compared to 2019 and 32% less than the expectations of the Federation for the year 2021 issued in 2019
2019 levels are unlikely to cross until 2023
With global markets open and economic recovery, there will be more growth in air travel from the lowest levels in 2020, but expectations indicate that until 2025 passenger revenue levels will be 10% lower than our previous expectations.
The pessimistic scene (the worst case scenario):
This scene depends on reopening markets and easing travel restrictions slowly with the extension of quarantine periods until the third quarter, due to the expected second wave of the virus, which results in a significant delay in the recovery of the air travel sector.
In this scenario, it is expected that the average passenger revenue measured in kilometers will decrease to 34% in the year 2021 compared to 2019, and about 41% from the previous forecast for the Federation for the year 2021.
In this regard, Alexander de Juniac, Director General and CEO of the International Air Transport Association, said: "Government incentives, along with pumping liquidity from central banks, will boost economic recovery once the epidemic is controlled, and that rebuilding passenger confidence will take longer, as it is expected to appear A culture of caution and reservation against air travel at the level of individuals and companies with the advantage of staying closer to their homes.
Long-distance, long-distance air travel
Results of a survey issued by IATA in April 2020 indicated that 58% of travelers will adhere to local travel in the first stage
Revenue from km passengers in 2022 at the level of domestic travel recovered from what it was in 2019, while revenue from travelers per km at the international level needs 2024 in order to return to its levels in 2019
"The repercussions of the current global crisis have implications for long-distance travel that are more and longer than expected in local markets, which requires joint international action to develop uniform biological security standards within the travel procedures, as we currently have a small opportunity to avoid the consequences of measures other than The coordinator, which we saw after the events of September 11, and we have to act quickly. "
Avoid quarantine measures
IATA calls on governments to find alternative solutions to maintain or introduce quarantine measures upon arrival or to introduce them as part of travel restrictions after the end of the epidemic. The Federation survey released in April indicated:
86% of travelers are concerned, either small or large, about quarantine after travel
69% of new travelers do not consider traveling if they involve a 14-day quarantine period.
Du Juniac: "This crisis, even at its best, will threaten many jobs and will have repercussions for many years on the economies of countries, especially on the growth of the expected air transport sector, and to protect the ability of aviation to be a catalyst for economic recovery, we should not make this prediction worse by Making travel impractical with quarantine procedures, and we need to provide safe travel solutions that preserve the life of the aviation sector and achieve the safety and security of travelers and give them confidence again that travel is safe, along with giving governments the confidence that they are protected from importing the virus. "
De Juniac explained that the solutions presented by the federation revolve around the development of temporary solutions that limit quarantine until the discovery of a vaccine for the virus, such as issuing supporting documents about the traveler carrying the virus or not, or the availability of quick checks to know the result of the infection.
The IATA proposal to give confidence to governments to reopen the border without resorting to quarantine measures included:
Prevent travelers traveling with symptoms of the virus using thermometers and other measures
Address the risks of asymptomatic travelers with governments by setting up a robust health advertising system and a passenger tracking and contact system.
Inter-governmental recognition of agreed measures is essential for the resumption of international travel. This is one of the main findings of the ICAO Civil Aviation Industry Rescue Team (CART).
De Juniac said: "The civil aviation industry rescue team has made many achievements within a short period of time, and at the present time they must reach agreements between countries on the measures necessary to control the spread of the virus and help the aviation sector to launch again, in addition to giving governments confidence about opening their borders. In front of travelers, while easing measures to ensure they are achieved globally. "