The 0.3 point drop in the unemployment rate in France in the first quarter, to 7.8%, is a "fall in trompe-l'oeil," said INSEE, Thursday, saying it was due the confinement of the second half of March which prevented many unemployed people from looking for one.
“This drop in the unemployment rate is the result of a sharp drop in the number of unemployed people declaring themselves available or actively looking for work during the confinement period. The period of confinement has indeed strongly affected the behaviors of active job search (for unemployed people whose privileged sector of activity is stopped), as well as the availability of people (constraint of guard of 'child for example)', explains INSEE in its press release.
An almost stable rate without containment
In fact, an unemployed person within the meaning of the International Labor Office (ILO) is a person aged 15 years or more who meets the following three criteria: is unemployed during the reference week; is available to work in the next two weeks; has done an active job search in the past four weeks or has found a job that starts within three months.
"In total, unemployment in the sense of the ILO is therefore lower during this period of confinement, without this reflecting an improvement in the labor market," explains the institute. "Based on observations from the first 11 weeks of the quarter, the effect of containment on the average unemployment rate in the first quarter is estimated at -0.4 points. In other words, the unemployment rate that would have been observed in the first quarter in the absence of confinement would have been almost stable at 8.2%, "said the institute.
A recovery plan under study
Consequence of confinement, in the second half of March, "only 42% of people aged 15-64 who are unemployed within the meaning of the ILO and wishing to work were available and in active search, compared to 65% during the same period of 2019 " In total, “the share of labor market participants who find themselves constrained in their labor supply, either by the absence of employment (unemployed or in the halo around unemployment), or in a situation of underemployment ( partial unemployment), jumped 2.1 points to 19.8%, its highest level since the end of 2016 ".
In a statement reacting to "the unemployment situation", the Ministry of Labor reaffirms "that a reflection with the social partners will be undertaken to quickly adapt our unemployment insurance rules to this exceptional situation" beyond the measures of extension rights already taken. In the recovery plan the government is working on, "a special place will be given to young people entering the job market, and to the most vulnerable," said the ministry.
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