Declaration Canceled in 39 prefectures Slowdown to a certain extent due to economic downturn Private estimation May 14 18:53
With the cancellation of the emergency declaration in 39 prefectures except Tokyo and Osaka, private consumption will be estimated to be 1.7 trillion yen less than if the declaration continued nationwide until the end of this month. Was compiled by the economist.
Toshihiro Nagahama, chief economist of the Dai-ichi Life Institute for Economic Research, said that if an emergency declaration was issued nationwide until the end of this month, personal consumption would be 16 trillion yen more than usual, and GDP in 2020 would decrease by 2.5%. It was a trial calculation.
According to a new calculation that was compiled on the 14th, the declaration will be lifted in 39 prefectures other than Tokyo and Osaka, which will hold the economy down to a certain extent.
Specifically, the consumption of non-essential foods and daily necessities will recover to a certain extent, and personal consumption will fall by 1.43 trillion yen, 1.7 trillion yen less than it has been.
The reduction in GDP is said to be about 2.2% from 2.5% so far.
In addition, the number of unemployed people due to the economic downturn is expected to decrease from 69,999 to 627,000, or 72,000.
However, there is no change in the situation that the new estimation will have a big impact on the economy, and Mr. Nagahama points out that the impact may be prolonged.