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  • According to Funcas, the crisis will last at least three years: the economy will not recover to the pre-pandemic level until 2023
  • Coronavirus. The Spanish economy suffers a historical contraction: GDP fell 5.2% in the first quarter

The first weeks of state of alarm and confinement of the population supposed a very hard blow for the economy. The National Statistics Institute (INE) has already advanced it, noting that, with just fifteen days affected, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) suffered a historical fall of 5.2% in the first quarter of the year. That means, according to Funcas, that the economy plummeted 30% during those last two weeks. Or clearer: that for each day of confinement, the country lost 1,000 million euros .

"From the start of the state of alarm until the end of March, the Spanish economy lost an average of 1,000 million euros per day," Raymond Torres, director of economic and international affairs at Funcas, told this newspaper. Therefore, in the month of March alone, GDP lost some 17 billion . A devastating figure that highlights the virulence of this recession.

« And in April the rhythm was maintained at the beginning , but later it has slowed down, that is to say, that during the second half of that month the fall was less. It is possible that we have hit bottom and from now on we can predict a slight increase in activity, very uneven by sector, "adds Torres.

The Savings Banks Foundation itself has already warned that the country will need at least three years to recover from this crisis in terms of GDP. Until 2023, he calculates, the pre-pandemic level will not have been reached and, of course, there will be much left to recover the lost growth. And as far as the labor market is concerned, and despite the fact that temporary employment regulation (ERTE) files have prevented the unemployment rate from skyrocketing above 30%, the recovery will be equally slow. The Government recognizes that the average level of unemployment will continue to exceed 17% in 2021, well above the 14% in which 2019 ended.

However, the figures can always be even worse and a good example of this are those of Deutsche Bank, which in its latest forecast update anticipates a drop of almost 20% for this year . And what is probably worse, a rebound of just 2.5% in 2021. This is his most pessimistic estimate, the one in which the containment of the pandemic is complicated, there is a new wave of infections and, ultimately , greater efforts are necessary. The entity's figures may seem a bit excessive, but the possibility that the situation is more complicated if possible is not at all unreasonable.

The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) already warned about this when it approved the macroeconomic table that the Government sent to Brussels, and reaffirmed it when publishing its review of the stability program: “There are high downside risks associated with the possibility of more adverse epidemiological scenarios materializing , "they warned.

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