Experts believe that the relevant data in April showed that the financial support for the real economy has been further strengthened, which has hedged the impact of the epidemic, and the domestic economic recovery has clearly recovered. In the next stage, on the basis of maintaining reasonable and sufficient market liquidity and increasing the supply of structured credit, the implementation of RRR cuts and the reduction of the benchmark deposit interest rate will help tap the potential of China's domestic market and stimulate the recovery of domestic total demand.
On May 11, the People ’s Bank of China released financial data for April. At the end of April, the broad money (M2) balance was 209.35 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1 and 2.6 higher than the end of last month and the same period of last year. Percentage point; the increase in the scale of social financing in April was 3.09 trillion yuan, 1.42 trillion yuan more than the same period of the previous year; the RMB loans in April increased by 1.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 681.8 billion yuan year-on-year.
“In April, domestic credit and social finance data increased year-on-year, and was better than market expectations. The data volume and structure are ideal, indicating that the domestic economic recovery is recovering. The financial data is strong, mainly due to the loose monetary credit environment and domestic economic activity. And other factors. "Said Zhou Maohua, an analyst at the Everbright Bank's financial market department.
Li Jianjun, the chief researcher of China Business Think Tank, believes that the market liquidity in April is still relatively ample, and M2's double-digit year-on-year increase also shows that the current monetary policy transmission mechanism is relatively smooth. The previously released liquidity can be greatly released through financial institutions. The increase in RMB loans can be confirmed.
Experts generally believe that the financial data in April showed that financial support for the real economy has been further strengthened, which has hedged the impact of the epidemic. Since the beginning of this year, the People ’s Bank of China has issued a series of monetary policy measures. Three RRR cuts have released long-term liquidity of 1.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.8 trillion yuan of re-loan re-discount quota, and played a role of policy bank credit support to guide commercial banks to increase Support for small and micro enterprises. Financial institutions actively adjusted internal management and assessment policies to increase loan placement. In the context of the decline in various economic data, credit has been significantly strengthened, and financial data has grown against the trend, effectively supporting the real economy.
"In April, the central bank continued to guide financial institutions to lower the lending market quoted interest rate (LPR) to promote the reduction of corporate financing costs and increase the relevance and effectiveness of financial institutions to increase credit to support the real economy. Financial institutions should make full loans and fast loans, The continuous increase of medium- and long-term loans in anti-epidemic enterprises, small and medium-sized enterprises, manufacturing, infrastructure and services has promoted the gentle repair of corporate loans and residential loans. "Said Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank.
It can also be seen from the structure of the scale of social financing in April that RMB loans and corporate bonds are the main contributors, accounting for more than 80%. Among them, RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 1.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 750.6 billion yuan year-on-year; corporate bond net financing was 901.5 billion yuan, an increase of 506.6 billion yuan year-on-year. As an important component of direct financing, since the beginning of this year, the scale of bond issuance has continued to increase, and the support for epidemic prevention and control and the real economy has been significantly strengthened.
Li Jianjun believes that more medium- and long-term loans have increased, indicating that more and more enterprises have begun to resume work and production, and related investment activities have resumed. In addition, the scale of bill financing is very large, indicating that the short-term liquidity demand is also very strong, indicating that different production capital needs are faced between state-owned enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises, and between major projects and production restoration.
Zhou Maohua said that it is expected that the subsequent RMB credit will remain strong. On the one hand, the global epidemic has spread beyond expectations, and the downward pressure on the domestic economy is still high. It is necessary to provide a relatively loose monetary and credit environment for the development of the real economy. Domestic countercyclical adjustment policies still need to be further strengthened; on the other hand, the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation Better, demand recovery and policy support will gradually drive the expansion of domestic corporate financing needs.
"Next, it is expected that the central bank will still maintain a looser monetary policy environment, provide more favorable financial conditions for enterprises, and support sufficient liquidity and long-term investment funds for enterprises." Li Jianjun said, while further strengthening the transmission of monetary policy The monitoring of the mechanism ensures that funds can flow to the real economy, prevents potential problems, and reduces the cost of funds.
Wen Bin suggested that, in the next stage, on the basis of maintaining reasonable and sufficient market liquidity and increasing the supply of structured credit, the implementation of RRR cuts and the reduction of the benchmark deposit interest rate will help tap the potential of China's domestic market and stimulate the recovery of domestic domestic demand. It is recommended to support the recovery of the real economy in a more prominent position, further guide the orderly downward adjustment of LPR, promote the decline in the real interest rate of loans, and help repair and boost effective demand. It is recommended that the monetary policy should be combined with the fiscal policy. In the face of some future situations, it is necessary to deal with the relationship between stable growth, job security, structural adjustment, risk prevention, and inflation control. On the basis, the domestic price level should be kept basically stable, and the RMB exchange rate should be kept basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. (Economic Daily · China Economic Net reporter Yao Jin)