China News Service Client, Beijing, May 11 (Reporter Li Jinlei) On May 11, the Macro Policy Group of the Guanghua School of Management of Peking University released the "Policy Package on China's Economic Restart after the Epidemic", suggesting "double-decker" consumption Incentive program, issuing cash vouchers and consumption vouchers with a scale of 900 billion yuan. Among them, 1,000 yuan cash coupons are issued for low-income groups.
Data Map: Residents wear masks to go out shopping. China News Service reporter Zhang Langshe
It is recommended to issue 900 billion cash coupons and consumer coupons
The research group believes that the new coronary pneumonia epidemic spread rapidly around the world, directly impacting the real economy and causing a huge disaster on the global economic and social level. At present, we must make greater determination, with stronger impetus, to issue more powerful economic recovery and reconstruction plans, so that the economy can regain its vitality.
"In the short term, supporting small and medium-sized enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households, and providing more jobs, the promotion of consumption is better and more direct than investment, and large-scale consumption coupons can be used as fiscal policy options." The research team said .
Therefore, the research group proposed to adopt a "double-layer" consumption incentive plan to issue cash coupons to low-income groups and people in epidemic areas; at the same time, nationwide large-scale consumption coupon issuance was implemented. The scale of the plan is 900 billion yuan.
Data figure: Bank teller is working. Photo by Ai Qinglong
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Give 1,000 yuan cash coupons to low-income groups
"First of all, 1000 yuan cash vouchers (that is, consumer vouchers with 100% government subsidies) will be issued to low-income groups and the entire employment population of Hubei." The research group pointed out.
According to data released by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the number of employed people in China reached 774.7 million in December 2019, and the labor participation rate was 55.33% (7.7471 / 14). If the employment population with a monthly income of less than 3,000 yuan is regarded as a low-income group, this group accounts for 31%. Therefore, it is estimated that, except Hubei, the low-income employed population is approximately 223 million ((14-0.5917) × 55.33% × 31%), and the employed population in Hubei Province is approximately 32.738 million.
Therefore, the cash voucher subsidy amount is: 262.731 billion (amount of subsidies for low-income working people except Hubei + amount of subsidies for working people in Hubei Province = 229.918 million × 1000 yuan + 32.738 million × 1000 yuan)
The research group believes that the Engel's coefficient of this group is very high, and income is basically spent to maintain daily life. The main policy objective of issuing cash coupons to this group is to bail out and rescue people's livelihood.
Issued 500 billion yuan worth of coupons
According to the research group, secondly, a large-scale consumption voucher of RMB 500 billion will be issued nationwide. The scale will be allocated by the state and central government funds will be allocated.
The research group believes that although the specific conditions in different regions are different and the degree of development of the digital economy is different, the Hangzhou case has great implications for the consumption growth that can be brought about by the implementation of consumer vouchers on a larger scale.
Calculated based on the new consumption multiple of 3.5 times in Hangzhou, the cancellation of 500 billion consumer coupons can bring in a total social retail sales of 1.75 trillion yuan, driving a growth of 4.25% in total social retail sales.
Screenshot of Nanjing Electronic Consumer Coupon.
The role of consumer vouchers in the end?
The research group believes that consumer vouchers are mostly used when the economy is rapidly declining. The government increases the consumption of residents through transfer payments. The increase in consumption drives the production of enterprises, the increase in production provides jobs, and employment promotes consumption.
The joint research of the research group and Ant Financial Services analyzed the implementation effect of 3.5 million sets of consumer vouchers with a total value of 250 million yuan issued by the Hangzhou municipal government through the Alipay platform on March 27 and April 3, and found that the implementation of consumer vouchers After the epidemic, stimulating consumption has a positive effect. A financial subsidy of 1 yuan can drive new consumption of more than 3.5 yuan on average; the larger the coupon value, the stronger the pulling effect, and the pulling effect will not lead to a decline in future consumption; the consumption stimulus effect on different industries and groups has not been affected. The impact of the “digital divide”.
At the same time, through a comparative study of the effects of consumer vouchers across Guangxi, the research team found that consumer vouchers' boosting effect on consumption is equally significant in relatively underdeveloped regions, and the multiplier effect is even greater. The introduction of digital consumer coupons that are flexible, conform to the public's psychology, and can form an ingenious "boost" role for the public's behavior can achieve a multiplier effect with relatively low financial expenditure.
Regarding consumption coupons, Vice Minister of Commerce Wang Bingnan said at a press conference recently that, according to preliminary statistics, since the outbreak, 28 provinces and cities and more than 170 prefectures and cities have pooled local government and social funds, and the cumulative consumption coupons reached 190 With more than 100 million yuan, these consumption-promoting measures have achieved obvious results and achieved the goals of focusing popularity, enhancing confidence, and boosting consumption. (Finish)