(Economic Observation) Has the transaction rebounded and the price of the property has become hot in China?
China News Agency, Beijing, May 11 Question: Is the rebound in transactions and the high price of the property market heating up in China?
China News Agency reporter Pang Wuji
Since March, real estate markets around the country have continued to show signs of recovery. In Shanghai and Shenzhen, there are people queuing up to buy luxury homes with a total price of tens of millions (RMB); during the “May Day” holiday, the volume of housing in the Beijing School District surged; the second-tier cities such as Chongqing, Xuzhou, Hangzhou, and Qingdao saw a sharp rebound in the property market last month Long-lost plots with high premiums and high total prices were frequently photographed; the top 100 housing companies' performance in April turned positive year-on-year. Is the Chinese property market getting hot?
Information figure: Real estate. China News Agency reporter Zhang Binshe
Demand for home purchase is released
"Changing the house before the implementation of the new housing policy in Xicheng School District" is the advice that Ms. Lin, who lives in Chaoyang District, Beijing, has received from real estate agents in recent days. At the end of April, a new house policy was introduced in the Xicheng District of Beijing: when children of the right age who bought a house in the district and obtained a house property certificate after July 31 applied for primary school, they would all enter the school in a multi-sectoral way. Ms. Lin has a child who is going to elementary school. The day after the New Deal was introduced, she sold her current house for sale. Ms. Lin told reporters from China News Service: "There are already several prospective buyers appearing. The sales cycle takes about one and a half months. I quickly settled on the house in Xicheng and I can complete the house change before the end of July."
Driven by factors such as grabbing the "policy last train" and the concentrated release of backlogged demand, Beijing's second-hand housing transaction volume has recovered rapidly since May. Statistics from the Shell Research Institute show that during the “May Day” period, second-hand housing transactions in Beijing surged. Among them, the second-hand housing transaction volume in Xicheng District increased by more than 100% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, pointed out that the current Beijing second-hand housing market has fully recovered to the highest monthly transaction situation in 2019, excluding factors such as the lag in online signing data. In May, the real transaction volume of Beijing second-hand housing is expected to reach 18,000 units.
This is the epitome of the recent recovery in the property market. Most real estate transactions in first-tier cities have been "fluttering red" in recent months. According to the statistics of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, in April, the transaction volume of commercial housing in first-tier cities increased by 45% month-on-month. Among them, Shanghai rose 57%; Shenzhen rose 8%; Beijing and Guangzhou saw similar increases, both exceeding 50%.
The second- and third-tier property markets have also recovered. Statistics from the CR Research Center show that of the 28 key cities, the total transaction area of second- and third-tier cities increased by 44% month-on-month and decreased by 4% year-on-year. Chongqing, Xuzhou, Hangzhou and other places have ushered in the centralized release of demand after the epidemic.
High prices frequently
Synchronized with the rising property market is the land market. In April, parcels with high unit prices, high premiums, and high total prices were frequent in various places.
Recently, the Minsi Temple Lot in Fengtai District, Beijing, was sold at a total price of 7.22 billion yuan, with a premium rate of 26.2%. According to estimates, the land price of its saleable residential complex is as high as 69,000 yuan per square meter.
On April 22, a plot in Siming District, Xiamen sold for 10.355 billion yuan. The floor price of this plot exceeded 50,000 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 43.82%, which set a new record for the unit price and total price of land transactions in Xiamen. .
According to the statistics of the Central Finger Institute, in April, China's 300 urban land grants increased by 133% month-on-month and 25% year-on-year. Among them, the land transfer income of Nanjing, Hangzhou, Foshan, Suzhou, Guangzhou, and Shanghai ranks first, all exceeding 20 billion yuan.
The hot local market means that housing companies are still optimistic about the market outlook and have sufficient funds. According to data from the CR Research Center, in April 2020, the top 100 housing companies achieved a full-caliber sales amount of 900.23 billion yuan in a single month, which was a positive year-on-year compared with April last year.
Continued differentiation
Is the property market really hot? It is worth noting that the transactions in the property market in many places rose sharply month-on-month, but they were still in a downward range. According to the China Housing Big Data Analysis Report issued by the Academy of Economics and Social Sciences of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, at present, the rapid rise in housing prices in some cities such as Shenzhen and Dongguan is a structural increase, and there is no regional real estate fever. At the same time, house prices and transactions in most cities have basically recovered after being hit by the epidemic. House prices have risen steadily overall, and there has been no market recession.
Looking ahead, the report believes that the important factors affecting the short-term housing prices in the future mainly include: the negative impact of the epidemic on housing consumption demand and the positive impact of the relatively loose monetary environment on housing demand and housing price expectations. In different places, the two have different degrees of influence. In the pattern of housing prices, there will be unevenness in the market, and there will be mixed ups and downs.
Lin Bo, general manager of the CR research center, said that recently, luxury home transactions in first- and second-tier cities have been active, which is mainly driven by the demand for asset preservation. Affected by the spread of the global epidemic, central banks in various countries have increased their "water release", and people's concerns about asset devaluation have increased. As a result, projects with a total price of more than 20 million yuan in Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing and other places are the best sellers, and low- and middle-end projects are "sell-free". This differentiation will continue in the future. (Finish)