China News Service, Beijing, May 8 (Xia Bin) Fidelity International released the latest macroeconomic trend study "New Economic Order" (hereinafter referred to as the "report") on the 8th. The report predicts that the global economy will have a U-shaped recovery with a high probability And pointed out that the new long-term trend will shape a unique development model after the epidemic. The government's market intervention, active fiscal policy, the sustainability of corporate governance, and the continued strong Asian economy will become the four characteristics of the new economic order.
The report said that the underlying scenario in the future economic scenario is that the global economy is expected to recover in a U-shape with a probability of approximately 60%. Under this scenario, it is expected that people from all over the world will continue to maintain social distance for the rest of the year, and the "closure of cities" and restrictions in various countries will gradually be lifted in the summer.
Andrew McCaffery, chief investment officer of Fidelity International Global Asset Management, said that although the government will provide greater support in monetary and fiscal policies, given the emergence of a series of challenges, including falling inflation, high unemployment and a recession, It may trigger long-term changes in some economic conditions, thereby gradually forming a "new economic order."
He further stated that in the world under the new economic order, government intervention in the market will increase day by day, and the free market model pursued since the 1980s will become a thing of the past. At the same time, the proactive fiscal policy has also made governments everywhere undertake more, and promote economic development through fiscal policy combined with monetary policy. As for the relevance of the two concepts of corporate governance and sustainability, which was also confirmed in this crisis, this concept is expected to be widely adopted in the future. In addition, Asia has been playing a long-term role in promoting the global economy, which is expected to continue under the new economic order.
Andrew believes that investors will need to adapt to an investment environment full of challenges such as low and negative interest rates, high debt, the use of unconventional monetary policy tools, and the scale of fiscal expenditures to unprecedented levels. However, these challenges may lead to the misplacement of asset prices in some markets, and bring opportunities for investors. (Finish)