In the first quarter, it increased by more than half, and trillions of "reinforcements" are on the way! Special debt ushered in debt peak in May

　　China-Singapore Jingwei client, May 8 (Wang Yongle) The early issuance of local government special bond quotas is an important part of a more proactive fiscal policy. In the first quarter of 2020, the national debt issued was 1.6105 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.49% year-on-year. Among them, the issue of special bonds was 110.4 billion yuan, an increase of 53.93% year-on-year, and the proportion of bond issuance reached 68.55%.

Guangdong's bond issuance ranks first, surpassing 70% of last year

　　In the first quarter of this year, the issuance of local bonds accelerated, and the scale of issuance reached a record high of nearly six quarters. The national issuance of local bonds totaled 1.6105 trillion yuan, which is a 14.49% increase compared to the scale of 1406.7 billion yuan issued in the first quarter of 2019. Among them, the issuance of general bonds was 506.5 billion yuan, and the issuance of special bonds was 110.4 billion yuan.

　　Geographically, the issuance of new bonds in the eastern and central and western provinces ranks first. Guangdong, Shandong and Sichuan issued more than 100 billion yuan, respectively 163.4 billion yuan, 103.137 billion yuan, 101.252 billion yuan; Henan, Zhejiang, Hebei, Fujian, Jiangxi, Yunnan, Anhui, Hunan, Beijing and other places issued more than 60 billion yuan ; The issuance scale of Ningxia, Qinghai, and Tibet is less than 5 billion yuan.

　　The joint credit analysis report pointed out that in the first quarter, the local government bond issuance rhythm was more differentiated. Jiangsu and Hunan, which ranked in the top two in terms of issuance scale in 2019, are only equivalent to 20.37% and 27.28% in the first quarter of 2020, which is lower than the national average of 36.92%. In contrast, Guangdong's circulation in the first quarter of 2020 reached 71.69% of the full year of 2019.

　　Wind data shows that the pace of local debt issuance accelerated in the first quarter of this year. A total of 492 local bonds were issued, an increase of 45.99% from the number of 337 bonds issued in the same period in 2019.

　　According to the analysis of the joint credit report, since the end of 2018, as the Ministry of Finance began to issue local government debt limits for the next year in advance, and the maturity scale of existing local bonds has entered a stage of rapid growth, the issuance rhythm of local bonds has begun to advance. The ratio of quarterly issuance to the current year rose to 32.20%, to a certain extent relieved the pressure of concentrated issuance in the third quarter. In the first quarter of 2020, the issuance scale of local bonds nationwide is equivalent to 36.92% of the whole year of 2019, of which the issuance scale of special bonds is equivalent to 42.65% of the whole year of 2019, accounting for a further increase compared with 2019.

　　In addition, in the first quarter, local bonds were divided by purpose, and 152.44 billion yuan of new bonds were issued, and 68.1 billion yuan of refinancing bonds were issued. Among them, new bonds accounted for 95.77%.

　　The Lianhe Credit Report pointed out that due to the maturity of existing local bonds in 2020 concentrated in the second half of the year, new bonds issued in the first quarter are mainly new bonds, and the scale of issuance of refinancing bonds (funds raised to repay the principal of local bonds due) Smaller.

　　The report also said that in 2019, the proportion of local debt repaid by refinancing was 87.32%. Considering the total maturity of local debt from April to December 2020, 1979.875 billion yuan, the pressure on the issuance of refinancing bonds during the year was greater.

　　Wind screenshot

　　Wind data shows that from March to December this year, the amount of local government debt to be repaid is 98.521 billion yuan, 68.435 billion yuan, 135.226 billion yuan, 335.864 billion yuan, 27.149 billion yuan, 257.266 billion yuan, 242.447 billion yuan, 217.698 billion yuan. , 386.268 billion yuan and 65.182 billion yuan.

1 trillion special debt "reinforcement" coming in May will usher in the peak debt

　　In order to speed up the issuance and use of local bonds, the Ministry of Finance issued a partial increase of 1,84.8 billion yuan in part of the new local debt quota in 2020, including general bonds of 558 billion yuan and special bonds of 1,290 billion yuan.

　　According to Wang Kebing, first-level inspector of the Budget Department of the Ministry of Finance, as of April 15th, as of April 15th, new local bonds issued across the country amounted to 15691 billion yuan, accounting for 85% of the amount issued in advance; of which, general bonds issued 462.4 billion yuan, accounting for 83% , Issued special bonds of 1160.7 billion yuan, accounting for 90%. 15 regions including Beijing, Tianjin, Liaoning, Ningbo, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi, Shandong, Guangdong, Shenzhen, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet and Gansu have all completed the issuance of new local government debt limit issuance in advance.

　　According to Wind data, the cumulative issuance of local bonds was RMB 1,897.269 billion in the first four months of this year. Among them, newly added bonds amounted to 16,625.57 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 90% of the quotas issued in advance. In other words, there is not much left for the amount issued in advance.

　　Photo of the new latitude and longitude Xiong Jiali in the picture

　　However, new "ammunition" has begun to be added. According to media reports at the end of April, the third batch of RMB 1 trillion local government special bond quota has been issued to some provinces. On May 6, the National Standing Committee requested that on the basis of the 1.29 trillion yuan of local government special bonds already issued at the beginning of the year, an additional limit of 1 trillion yuan of special bonds be issued in advance, and strive to complete the issuance by the end of May.

　　Wang Kebing also disclosed earlier that he is instructing all localities to map the specific debt quota to specific projects as soon as possible, organize the preparation for bond issuance, and strive to complete the issuance by the end of May, ensure early issuance, early use, and early results, and form an economic drive effect.

　　Zhou Yue, the chief fixed income analyst of Guojin Securities, said that after the third batch of special debt was issued in advance, according to the requirements for the completion of the issuance at the end of May, it is expected that May will usher in the peak of local debt issuance. The massive issuance of local bonds may have a periodic impact on the liquidity of the bond market. The central bank is expected to hedge through open market operations and other means.

　　Guo Sheng Securities analyst Zhang Wei believes that May to September will be the peak period for local debt issuance, and it is necessary to complete the local debt net financing of 3.05 trillion yuan, but there is no need to worry too much about the amount of local debt. The steady growth policy this year is mainly finance At the same time, the monetary policy will be coordinated. At the same time as the local debt issuance and volume, the central bank will invest funds through RRR cuts and other means. The central bank may again revise the RRR in May or early June.

　　The GF fixed income report pointed out that the targeted RRR cuts of small and medium-sized banks on May 15 will release about 200 billion of funds. Considering that about 1 trillion of new special bonds are issued, there are still about 800 billion of capital gaps to be filled. It is estimated that this 800 billion is unlikely Completely converted from overstorage funds, the central bank may adopt open market operations and other means of hedging to ensure liquidity. (Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)

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