Xinhua News Agency, New York, May 1st, Financial Observation: US stock market rebound in April may not last
Xinhua News Agency reporter Liu Yanan
Affected by the new crown epidemic, the US stock market quickly fell into a bear market in March. Driven by the stimulus policies of the Federal Reserve and the US government, US stocks rebounded sharply in April. Market analysts believe that based on comprehensive economic data, the performance of listed companies and the development of the epidemic, US stocks may pull back or even bottom again after a sharp rebound.
The data shows that in April, the S & P 500 stock index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 12.7% and 11.1% respectively, the largest monthly increase since 1987; the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 15.5% in the month, the highest since 2000. The best month.
Barry Bannister, head of institutional equity strategy at Stift Financial, the US investment bank, said the recent rise in the S & P 500 index was mainly due to the Fed ’s introduction of an “unlimited” quantitative easing policy to save the market in late March.
Although there is stimulus policy support, this round of rally lacks fundamental support. Macroeconomic research agency MRB Partners pointed out that the sharp rebound of US stocks in April exceeded the support of fundamentals, and disappointment may occur in the near future.
From the macroeconomic point of view, the major economic data such as the US GDP, personal consumption expenditures, and manufacturing purchasing managers' index released recently are all unsatisfactory. The impact of the new crown epidemic is still gradually emerging, and the US economy has not yet come out of its worst stage.
Judging from the performance of listed companies, market research agency FactSet reported on the 1st that 55% of S & P 500 companies have announced their first-quarter financial reports. Among them, the proportion of companies whose profits exceeded market expectations was lower than the average level in the past five years. The report predicts that the first-quarter earnings of S & P 500 companies will decline by 13.7% year-on-year.
Tom Essay, the founder of the 7-point market report of the US market research publication, said that the performance of listed companies in the first quarter is mixed, and that US stocks will fall after a strong performance in April.
UBS Group released a report on the 1st that investors are evaluating various factors such as the rapidly changing epidemic situation, the gradual restart of the economy and the latest economic data. It is expected that the stock market will remain full of volatility.
MRB Partners said that the economic outlook is highly uncertain and that it should "keep cautious" on the stock market, and "hold a neutral position" on the stock market in its portfolio.
Bank of America's Global Research Department said that the negative impact of the epidemic on fundamentals has become more clear, and the bear market's rising market may end. The current bear market rise is similar to the situation in 2008, and the stock market has limited upside space before turning down.