January-March GDP minus April-June Worse or worse Private forecast May 3 at 4:08
It will be announced on the 18th of this month. GDP = Gross domestic product from January to March will be reduced from 3% to 6% in annual rate due to the spread of new coronavirus infection. The company predicts. It is predicted that the GDP from April to June will fall further, and it will be a severe minus of over 20%.
Ten companies, including private research firms, say that Japan's GDP growth rate from January to March will be minus 0.9% to minus 1.7% in real terms, excluding price fluctuations. I am predicting.
Converted to an annual rate, it will fall from minus 3.5% to minus 6.5%. Following the GDP from October to December last year, which was minus 7.1% due to the increase in the consumption tax rate, etc., it is the second consecutive minus.
This is because, as a result of the refraining from going out due to the spread of the new coronavirus infection, personal consumption such as travel and eating out decreased, economic activity stagnated worldwide, and "export" fell sharply.
However, each company pointed out that the impact of the spread of infection will become more serious after April, and it is predicted that the GDP from April to June will be a large negative 20% or more.
This is a severe negative that exceeds the level immediately after the Lehman shock, and the Japanese economy may face a further serious decline.