It takes time for pig prices to drop to normal
Our reporter Huang Junyi
"Compared with the end of the first quarter compared with the end of last year, the nationwide live pig inventory and capable sow inventory have achieved chain growth. The wholesale price of pork has fallen for 10 consecutive weeks, falling by about 6 yuan per kilogram." April 28, agriculture Wei Baigang, director of the Development Planning Department of the Ministry of Rural Affairs, said.
In Beijing's Xinfadi agricultural wholesale market, the average wholesale price of white striped pigs was 37.75 yuan per kilogram on April 23, a significant decrease of 25.2% from 50.5 yuan on February 18.
The monitoring data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs show that the prices of live pigs and pork have declined continuously throughout the country. From the perspective of weekly prices, pork prices in the bazaar increased from 50.88 yuan per kilogram in the fourth week of December 2019 to 59.64 yuan in the third week of February 2020. Since the fourth week of February, terminal consumption has been weak due to the new coronary pneumonia epidemic , Falling continuously. In the fourth week of April, the average price was 52.11 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 1.6% month-on-month and a cumulative decrease of 12.6%. The price of live pigs in the bazaar changed from RMB 32.27 per kg in the fourth week of December 2019 to RMB 37.51 in the third week of February 2020, and then fell. In the fourth week of April, it was 33.73 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 1.3% month-on-month, and a cumulative decrease of 11.2%.
At the same time, the price of piglets rose for 17 consecutive weeks, from 75.53 yuan / kg in the first week of January to 99.97 yuan / kg in the fourth week of April, with a cumulative increase of 33.0%. "This shows that farmers have a very high enthusiasm for supplementing the fence and expanding production," said Zhu Zengyong, associate researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Science and Veterinary Medicine, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.
Liu Tong, manager of the Statistics Department of Beijing Xinfadi Agricultural Products Wholesale Market, believes that the continuous decline in the national price of pigs is an important reason for the serious hog pressure in the early stage and the recent concentrated listing.
Last week (April 18 to April 24), the average daily volume of white striped pigs on the Beijing Xinfadi agricultural wholesale market was 1142.57, an increase of 1038 from the previous week (April 11 to April 17) 10.07%, the overall trend is the growing number of live pigs listed.
Under normal circumstances, the unit weight of white-striped pigs is generally around 75 kg / head. The longer the hog presses, the greater the unit weight after slaughter. Liu Tong told reporters that from the perspective of the Beijing Xinfadi agricultural wholesale market, after the Spring Festival, the unit weight of white striped pigs gradually increased. Last week, the single weight of white-striped pigs was concentrated between 90 kg / head and 100 kg / head. The proportion of those below 90 kg / head was 20%, and the proportion of 100 kg / head was kept at 20%. The proportion of white-striped pigs below 90 kg / head has increased significantly. This shows that the farm's sales attitude has begun to change. "
"According to the data of the Ministry of Commerce, the national catering revenue decreased by 44.3% year-on-year from January to March. Affected by the epidemic, the consumption of pork was sluggish, leading to a continuous decline in the price of pigs." Zhu Zengyong said that although the supply of commodity pigs and consumption of pork both declined, pork The supply and demand situation has shifted from the phased tight supply and demand in the fourth quarter of last year to the basic balance between supply and demand. At present, the main influencing factors of pork and hog prices have changed from the supply side of hogs to the consumer side of pork. Although household consumption has increased, it will still take time for catering consumption, group consumption and processing consumption to recover, and it is expected that the prices of live pigs and pork will continue to show seasonal trends.
Will the pork price rebound near the May Day holiday?
Affected by the large number of pigs slaughtered in the early stage, the current market has a relatively sufficient source of pigs. Although it is not ruled out that some slaughtering companies supplement their inventory for holiday consumption, the purchase volume is still limited. Zhu Zengyong said that during the “May Day” period this year, consumption boost was limited. In addition, frozen pork was released again. It is difficult for pork prices to rebound significantly. Some regions may rebound slightly, but the overall change in national pig prices is small, and it is difficult to appear large. Rebound.
Regarding the trend of national pig prices in the future market, experts believe that it is necessary to pay close attention to the national resumption of production and production. "It is expected that the population movement in May will return to about 80% of the normal level, and pork consumption will further recover, but it will still take time to fully return to the normal level." Zhu Zengyong said.
Huang Junyi