Support the real economy not to engage in "flood irrigation"
Active fiscal policy is more active and promising, stable monetary policy is more flexible and appropriate
In the face of the impact of the epidemic, it is necessary to step up macroeconomic policy adjustment and implementation, pay close attention to research and put forward a package of macroeconomic policy measures that are actively responded to, proactive fiscal policies should be more proactive and sound, and stable monetary policies should be more flexible and appropriate
To innovate and improve macroeconomic regulation and control, prudent monetary policy should pay more attention to flexibility and appropriateness, and place support for the recovery of the real economy in a more prominent position
Need to strengthen the counter-cyclical policy hedging efforts to stabilize the economy, but should not take the old road of "flood flooding", but need to make appropriate adjustments to growth targets based on the impact of domestic and foreign epidemics
□ Reporter Du Xiao
□ Jiang Mengjie, an intern in this newspaper
The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on March 27. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to step up macroeconomic policy adjustment and implementation. We must pay close attention to research and put forward a package of macro-policy measures that are actively responded to. Active fiscal policies must be more proactive and sound, and sound monetary policies must be more flexible and appropriate, appropriately increase the fiscal deficit rate, issue special national bonds, increase the size of local government special bonds, and guide loans Market interest rates are down, keeping liquidity reasonably ample. It is necessary to implement various tax reduction and fee reduction policies, accelerate the issuance and use of local government special bonds, and step up preparations and construction work for key projects. It is necessary to give full play to the leading role of financial policies such as re-loan re-discounting and loan repayment of principal and interest, unblock the transmission mechanism, alleviate financing difficulties and expensive financing, and provide accurate financial services for epidemic prevention and control, resumption of production and real economy development. We must pay close attention to combing and analyzing the difficulties and blocking problems reflected by local and enterprises, and promptly solve them, so as to promote the coordinated resumption of production and production in the industrial chain.
With the spread of the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic around the world, many countries have suffered severe economic impacts. Compared with the ups and downs of some countries such as the US stock market, China ’s socio-economic situation has remained stable and its financial risks are controllable. .
Proactive fiscal policy
Government investment drives the economy
Historically, China has only issued special treasury bonds twice: the first was the issuance of 270 billion yuan special treasury bonds in 1998 to supplement the capital of the four major banks in response to the 1997 Asian financial crisis; the second was the issuance of 1.55 in 2007 Trillions of special government bonds are used to establish CIC companies.
In an interview with the media, Bai Jingming, deputy dean of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, said that an active fiscal policy should be more positive and promising, and one of its important connotations is to moderately increase expenditure intensity. "Appropriate measures to increase the fiscal deficit rate, issue special national bonds, and increase the scale of special bonds are important decisions made by the central government in the face of the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic and the complex and changing domestic and international economic situations."
Regarding the use of special government bonds, Zheng Chunrong, deputy dean of the Institute of Public Policy and Governance of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, analyzed in an interview with the media that the investment in special government bonds may include supporting infrastructure construction and helping enterprises.
Zheng Chunrong believes that from the perspective of steady growth and shortcomings, increase investment in public health services and emergency supplies security, accelerate 5G infrastructure, UHV, intercity high-speed railway and intercity rail transit, new energy vehicle charging piles, large The progress of new infrastructure construction in fields such as data centers, artificial intelligence and industrial Internet will become one of the main directions for local government bond funds.
In the interview, Feng Qiaobin, a professor in the economics department of the National School of Administration, believes that as the downward pressure on the economy increases, the government needs to take responsibility. Under the current situation, increasing investment is an important means of driving the economy.
At a press conference held by the Joint Defense and Joint Control Mechanism of the State Council, Ou Hong, Director of the Investment Division of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that accurate investment should be ensured without "flooding floods". To expand effective investment, we must focus on the weak links exposed by the epidemic, focus on the shortcomings of economic and social development, focus on high-quality development and major national strategies, and fight against poverty. Accelerate the construction of major projects and infrastructure that have been clearly defined in the national plan, and accelerate the construction of new infrastructure such as 5G networks and data centers. Project construction must be scientifically demonstrated and promoted in an orderly manner.
"If the government can simultaneously consider how to promote and activate private investment in the investment process, it will further amplify the role of government investment in promoting economic growth. It is necessary to use government investment to rationally use private investment to revitalize private investment to further stimulate the economy. Development of overall vitality. "Feng Qiaobin said.
Monetary policy is flexible and moderate
More support for the real economy
On March 30, the People's Bank of China issued an announcement saying that in order to maintain the reasonable and sufficient liquidity of the banking system, the People's Bank of China carried out a 7-day 50 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation through interest rate tendering. The winning bid rate was 2.20%. The interest rate is 2.40%.
Ma Jun, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China and a researcher at the National Finance Institute of Tsinghua University, said in an interview with the media that this signifies that monetary policy has entered a stage of increasing countercyclical adjustment. Choosing to cut interest rates at this point should be a comprehensive The decision was made after taking into account domestic demand for resumption of production and production, as well as various factors such as the international epidemic situation and the deterioration of the external economic environment. Lowering the open market operation interest rate can further reduce the financing cost of the real economy.
On March 26, the People ’s Bank of China Monetary Policy Committee held its first meeting in 2020 in Beijing. The meeting held that the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic on China's economy is generally controllable, China's economic growth remains resilient, and the long-term fundamentals have not changed. A prudent monetary policy reflects the requirements of forward-looking, targeted and counter-cyclical adjustment.
The meeting also pointed out that in order to innovate and improve macroeconomic regulation and control, a stable monetary policy should pay more attention to flexibility and appropriateness, and place support for the recovery of the real economy in a more prominent position.
The current macro policy trend coincides with the previous analysis of the academic community. In early March, the research report provided by the Guanghua School of Management of Peking University believed that in the face of the impact of the epidemic, it is necessary to strengthen the counter-cyclical policy hedging to stabilize the economy, but should not follow the old road of "flood flooding", but need to increase growth based on the impact of the domestic and foreign epidemic Make appropriate adjustments to the goals. In the short term, it is necessary to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments, increase tax cuts and subsidies, make fiscal policies more proactive, and monetary policies more flexible and appropriate. In the early stage of the outbreak, the central bank has provided sufficient liquidity support through MLF interest rate cuts and a large number of reverse repurchase operations. At this time, the central bank should not conduct "flood flooding", but should support the real economy with precise measures. Meet real credit needs.
Liu Shaojun, a professor at China University of Political Science and Law, believes that to implement an active fiscal policy, it must be within the scope of the power prescribed by the budget law, so that the active fiscal policy becomes a specific step in implementing and refining the budget law, and cannot violate the statutory authority and procedures. To implement a flexible monetary policy, it must also be within the scope of the power operation prescribed by the People's Bank of China Law, making it a more refined and accurate operation method. Increasing construction investment must also be carried out in accordance with industrial policy planning and investment approval procedures. This should be taken as a concrete measure to further create a legalized business environment.
Reasonable use of macro policies
Resumption of production and production situation is good
Under the effective and effective guidance of macro policies, relevant departments have adopted a series of measures to "transfusion" SMEs, and China's social economy is constantly overcoming the impact of the epidemic.
At a press conference held by the Joint Defense and Joint Control Mechanism of the State Council, Yu Weiping, deputy minister of finance, said that the current balance of pension insurance fund balances across the provinces is unbalanced. The government will supplement the basic pension insurance fund, increase the central adjustment of the pension insurance fund, increase the transfer of some state-owned capital to enrich the social security fund, and increase the reform of the basic pension insurance fund. Through these measures, it is possible to implement the policy of periodic reduction and exemption of social insurance premiums, and effectively reduce the burden of enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises.
Wang Daoshu, chief auditor of the State Administration of Taxation, said that from January to February this year, taxes and fees were reduced to 402.7 billion yuan nationwide. Among them, the new tax cuts and fees to be released in 2020 to support policies related to epidemic prevention and control are 158.9 billion yuan. Among the four new batches of policies introduced this year, the third batch of policies focusing on reducing the burden on small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households and the fourth batch of policies focusing on stabilizing foreign trade and foreign investment have been implemented since March.
Recently, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the "Notice on Strengthening the Coordination and Resumption of Industrial Chain Financial Services in the Industrial Chain" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"), which pointed out that financial support for core enterprises in the industrial chain should be increased. After supporting core enterprises to raise funds through credits and bonds, they will reduce the capital occupancy of upstream and downstream enterprises in an appropriate manner, and help small and medium-sized enterprises in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain to solve problems such as tight liquidity. Optimize financial services for upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain. Increase credit support for small and medium-sized enterprises in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain through accounts receivable financing, order financing, advance payment financing, inventory and warehouse receipt pledge financing.
At a press conference held by the Joint Defense and Joint Control Mechanism of the State Council, Xin Guobin, the deputy minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that as of March 28, the national industrial average operating rate was 98.6%, the average personnel return rate was 89.9%, and the SME resumption rate It has reached 76%, and the average daily rate of increase since March has been around 1 percentage point, and the pace of construction has accelerated significantly.
The relevant person in charge of the National Bureau of Statistics said that the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index and integrated PMI output index in March rose sharply from the base in February. These data show that the production and operation status of enterprises in March is the same as that in February. In comparison, there have been significant positive changes.
Investment in major projects is also proceeding in an orderly manner. At a press conference held by the Joint Defense and Joint Control Mechanism of the State Council, Shi Chunxian, director of the Planning and Planning Department of the Ministry of Water Resources, said that major water conservancy projects have the characteristics of wide coverage, large investment absorption, long industrial chain, and many job creation opportunities. Give play to the role of investment. Major water conservancy projects generally have a good planning foundation, and most of them have been proved for many years and have the conditions to speed up construction. After completion, they will not cause overcapacity problems.
Liu Shaojun believes that the package of macro-policy measures to respond actively is to increase the demand quantity and supply capacity of social investment goods and consumer goods, and promote the rapid recovery of the economy to a reasonable level. After the epidemic occurred, due to some prevention and control measures taken by various regions, the normal production and operation of enterprises were affected. After the outbreak of the global epidemic, the export volume of non-epidemic materials fell sharply, and the related enterprises had difficulty in operating. In addition, the large fluctuations in the international financial market and the ups and downs of the stock market will have a negative impact on China ’s economic development and increase the potential risks of the financial market. It is necessary to actively respond to the package of macro-policy measures to restore the social economy to normal as soon as possible Effectively prevent and control financial risks.
Actively participate in international coordination
Maintain the stability of the financial market
On March 26, General Secretary Xi Jinping attended the G20 Leaders ’Special Summit and delivered an important speech, pointing out that strengthening international macroeconomic policy coordination. Countries should work together to increase macro policy hedging efforts to prevent the world economy from falling into recession. It is necessary to implement strong and effective fiscal and monetary policies, maintain the stability of the global financial market, and maintain the stability of the global industrial chain supply chain. China will increase the supply of raw materials, necessities, and anti-epidemic materials to the international market. We must protect the vulnerable groups and guarantee the basic life of the people. China will continue to implement an active fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, unswervingly expand reform and opening up, relax market access, continue to optimize the business environment, actively expand imports, expand foreign investment, and contribute to world economic stability.
In recent years, China's economy has grown rapidly, and its position in the global financial market and industrial chain supply chain has become increasingly prominent. It has become a stabilizing global economy under the influence of the epidemic.
On March 26, the British think tank Z / Yen Group released the 27th Global Financial Center Index (GFCI27), and Shanghai rose to the fourth place in the global financial center for the first time.
At a press conference held by the Joint Defense and Joint Control Mechanism of the State Council, Chen Yulu, vice governor of the People's Bank of China, stated that China is already a world financial power, with the world's largest credit market and foreign exchange reserves, and the world's second largest Stock market, bond market and insurance market, to maintain the stability of China's financial market is a major contribution to global financial stability. To actively participate in the international coordination of macroeconomic policies, we must strengthen the monitoring of the operation of the international financial market, thoroughly analyze and judge the internal laws of this round of international financial turmoil, and combine China ’s previous policy experience in responding to the epidemic, and timely Coordinate and provide constructive opinions to jointly provide multilateral international assistance to developing countries that are more affected by the epidemic and encounter great difficulties, and jointly maintain the stability of the global financial market.
Xin Guobin said that China has more than 1,500 API manufacturers and is the world's largest API producer. As a responsible big country, China attaches great importance to the safety of the global pharmaceutical industry supply chain. We will also earnestly implement the solemn commitment of General Secretary Jin Ping, to be a responsible country, and strive to maintain the production of raw material pharmaceutical manufacturers, and ensure the safety and stability of global industrial chain supply.
According to Gao Feng, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, in the first two months of this year, Chinese domestic investors made non-financial direct investments in 1,733 foreign companies in 147 countries and regions around the world, with a cumulative investment of 107.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase 1.8%; the newly signed contract value was 215.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.3%. Among them, Chinese enterprises' investment in the “Belt and Road” has maintained steady growth.
Liu Shaojun believes that after the outbreak, all countries have adopted corresponding control measures, which will have a greater impact on the economy, which will not only cause the supply chain of the industrial chain to break, but will also be further transmitted to the financial market and cause severe fluctuations. Countries must strengthen international macroeconomic policy coordination and jointly adopt fiscal and monetary policies in the same direction to minimize the negative effects of global financial markets and industry chain supply chain fluctuations.
"All countries should make the necessary institutional communication and arrangements on the production and supply of epidemic prevention materials and other related products to avoid the breakage of the supply chain of the relevant industrial chain, including the reduction of tariffs, the removal of barriers, and the smooth trade. In this process, fiscal and monetary policies should be more rationally and effectively coordinated, rather than expedient during the epidemic. "Liu Shaojun said.
Liu Shaojun believes that enterprises in many countries have been forced to stop working and stop production. In this case, financial regulatory authorities of various countries should urge financial institutions to systematically analyze the capital blocking points in the supply chain of the industrial chain and the capital needs of core enterprises, focusing on effective funding. Supply, to ensure that the plugging point enterprises and core enterprises can resume normal production and operation capabilities as soon as possible, and drive the industrial chain supply chain to resume normal operation. Central banks of various countries should precisely increase the money supply to these financial institutions, so that they have enough loan funds to supply the blocking enterprises and core enterprises, and ensure that the entire industrial chain supply chain runs smoothly as soon as possible.
"Notice" pointed out that strengthening financial support for the coordinated development of the global industrial chain. Strengthen the financial support of banking financial institutions to "stabilize foreign trade", increase the supply of foreign trade credit, and implement policies such as temporary deferral of principal and interest payments for loans to small and medium-sized enterprises. Insurance institutions are encouraged to further expand the coverage of short-term export credit insurance.
"Under the background of the epidemic, all economies in the world must work together to rationally use fiscal and monetary policies to hedge the unprecedented pressure on the global economy caused by the epidemic. China is stabilizing the economic fundamentals and effectively preventing and controlling various risks. The initiative to assist other economies fully embodies the style of a responsible big country and the efforts to actively promote the building of a community with a shared future for mankind. "Feng Qiaobin said.