INTERVIEW
Unpublished, the figures make you dizzy. The coronavirus pandemic caused a historic fall in French gross domestic product (GDP), with a contraction of 5.8% in the first quarter, and plunged the country into recession, according to an estimate released Thursday by INSEE. This is the largest drop in the history of quarterly GDP assessments started in 1949. Guest of Europe 1, Matthieu Plane, deputy director of the OFCE's analysis and forecasting department, warns that "the fall is dizzying, and we don't know where it will end. "
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"On these figures, we are in unknown territory", in particular concerning the rest of the events, explains this economist, who fears a more significant deterioration in the coming months, especially as this drop of 5.8% in the first quarter n 'includes only fifteen days of confinement, those of March. "Unfortunately, this figure for the first quarter is preparation for the disaster for the second, which will be much worse, since we will have had a much longer period of confinement," he explains. However, he continues, "we see that the drop in activity in confinement is staggering, with 32% loss of activity per month of confinement". And Matthieu Plane warns: "We should be with a double digit negative figure, beyond -10%".
"Many sectors will be under-active for a long time"
While the containment will gradually end from May 11, the guest of Europe 1 already assures that the level of production at the recovery, which will be compared to a very low level, "will not be not the one before the crisis. " "The question is knowing from when we will find a level of production equivalent to that before the crisis. It will take months," he said.
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For Mathieu Plane, who recalls that "many sectors will be under-active for a long time", the urgency is to "limit as much as possible bankruptcies and layoffs which will be significant, to plug the crisis as much as possible to avoid structural damage ". Furthermore, even after the recovery, the economy will remain under the threat of a rebound in the epidemic. "We must avoid a scenario where we would be reconfigured in the summer," he warns, because "the challenge of summer is very important for businesses, linked to tourist activity, such as restaurants". And to conclude: "The next two months, there must be a real balance between economic recovery, even a slow one, and avoid a new epidemic peak".