Not far from equilibrium in 2019, Social Security sees its deficit widen very sharply because of the coronavirus epidemic. The Minister of Public Accounts, Gérald Darmanin, expects more than 40 billion euros, in the most favorable hypothesis. Unheard of for the Safely.
An abysmal deficit, never seen: the social security hole will exceed 40 billion euros this year.
We changed the world. It should be remembered that last year, the deficit of the Social Security Fund was only 1.9 billion, so we were not far from breakeven. A few weeks of pandemic and containment blew up the meters.
The previous record dates from 2010, after the financial crisis, and it was "only" 28 billion. We are therefore far beyond the 41 billion announced by Gérald Darmanin, the Minister of Public Accounts. And again: he himself admitted that this was a favorable hypothesis. Why ? Because many companies that have requested payroll tax deferrals will be unable to pay them anyway. This will further widen the hole in our Social Security.
Is this hole due to the cost of the epidemic?
A part, but not the most important, 8 billion euros, comes in fact from the increase in health spending. Health insurance spending will jump 6.5% this year instead of the 2.45% originally planned. But the hole in the Safely is also explained by the collapse of revenues: the shutdown of half of our economy means 20 billion in social contributions and CSG less. This is why it is important that the activity starts again.
There is also a drop in the wage bill with millions of workers on short-time working: this is as much less income. It is said to be the worst crisis since the Second World War: it is true except that after 1945, there were the 30 glorious years and the population was younger. It will be harder and longer to recover from the 2020 crisis.