China News Service Client Beijing, April 23 (Zhang Xu) After the WTI crude oil futures contract fell to a negative value in May, investors of BOC crude oil not only lost their principal, but also owed a large amount of money to the bank. On the 23rd, "Crude Oil Investors owed the bank not to be included in the credit report" and then appeared on Weibo.
Is the bank's risk control caused by this negative oil price or investors not grasping the risks? Can the bottom of crude oil be copied?
Negative oil price breakdown crude oil treasure
Due to weak demand and a lower-than-expected production cut, the international crude oil market has fluctuated recently. On April 20, before the delivery date of the contract, the May WTI crude oil futures contract price plummeted by 306% to close at -37.63 USD / barrel. .
WTI crude oil futures May contract day K line source: Wind
Under normal circumstances, crude oil prices will not appear negative, but on April 15, CME Group (CME) revised the trading rules, the agency said that recent market events have increased some NYMEX energy futures contracts may be negative or zero The possibility of transaction settlement at the transaction price, and options for these futures contracts may be listed at a negative or zero exercise price.
As soon as the rules were changed, the May WTI crude oil futures contract hit an unprecedented negative value. On the 21st, Bank of China suspended trading, saying it was communicating with CME. On the 22nd, Bank of China issued an announcement confirming that the official settlement price of WTI crude oil May futures contract CME-37.63 US dollars / barrel is a valid price.
What does negative oil price mean to investors? "If a customer buys a May contract at a price of $ 30 a barrel, the loss per barrel is as high as $ 67.63 after a forced liquidation. In addition to the interest rate difference charged by the bank, the loss is about $ 68 per barrel." Industry analysts said.
BOC launched the "Crude Oil" product in January 2018 to provide domestic customers with trading services linked to overseas crude oil futures, and customers make their own trading decisions. Individual customers must submit a 100% deposit for "Crude Oil Treasure" and do not allow leveraged trading.
According to the understanding of ordinary investors, the bottom of the physical assets, without leverage, is the loss of the principal, but the current situation is that investors not only lose the principal, but also may owe more than double the principal of the bank.
Taking the online statement of settlement as an example, the average price of the investor's position is 194.23 yuan, and the principal is 388.46 million yuan. The current loss is 9.207 million yuan and 532.24 million owed to the bank.
Statements posted by netizens.
Who is responsible for banks and investors?
At present, the problem is mainly in two aspects-whether investors should be willing to gamble and lose? Are there any problems with bank product risk control?
For investors, before investing in crude oil-related products, if they do not understand the nature of their high volatility and the recent series of extreme events have caused increased volatility, it is easy to be unnecessarily damaged.
In terms of banks, there is a view that the price of WTI crude oil futures contracts in May has continued to fall. After the CME modified the rules to allow negative values, the risk has increased greatly, and Bank of China has been holding positions, becoming the last long. In contrast, domestic banks with paper crude oil business, such as ICBC and CCB, basically completed the month-to-month transfer work on April 14-15, when their closing prices were basically between $ 21-20 per barrel.
The Bank of China's crude oil products inappropriately chose to trade positions in the US market on the penultimate day of the last trading day, and encountered major liquidity problems, which led to huge losses for investors.
It is worth noting that crude oil treasure has been vigorously promoted by official channels. When US oil plummeted in March, BOC Jiangxi Branch's WeChat public account stated: "Crude oil is cheaper than water, and BOC takes you to trade."
The slogan of Bank of China Jiangxi Branch.
The propaganda said, for example, if an investor shorts a 100-barrel U.S. crude oil contract on March 5 and closes the position on March 9, the rate of return will exceed 37% within 5 days. This investment is called a "black gold" investment .
However, the reality and the original propaganda can be described as two different sides.
Regarding whether the bank owed money needs to be made up, the online customer service of BOC APP said that this will be regarded as arrears, and the bank has the right to apply to the People's Bank of China to include the arrears record in its credit . According to the crude oil treasure investment agreement, if the margin is insufficient, the Bank of China may deduct funds from other accounts of the investor to offset the bank ’s losses . This means that when investors do not take the initiative to make up for the money owed to the crude oil account, the deposit account will not be guaranteed .
Crude oil? The institution does not recommend investment
The huge loss of Crude Oil Bao, sounded the alarm for crude oil futures investment. A number of institutions indicated that the current international oil price is unstable and that investment is not recommended for the time being.
Both the policy and the trading time of overseas markets are different from those in China, and there is no limit to the increase or decrease of prices, which greatly increases the risk of investing in bulk products in overseas markets.
On the evening of April 22, CCB issued the "Announcement on Recent Trading Arrangements for Account Commodity Trading Business", saying that in view of the current price risk and liquidity risk and other factors, the account crude Brent and account crude WTI varieties have been suspended since the announcement Opening trades of monthly contracts and closing trades of open clients are not affected.
The CCB app shows that the June contract of WTI crude oil futures can no longer be opened for trading.
The picture comes from the Construction Bank APP.
Jin Lianchuang crude oil analyst Wang Jing said: "At a time when sentiment in the global crude oil market is so volatile, it is recommended to continue to focus on the appearance of the market and do a complete hedging work. Do not follow the situation blindly to avoid greater losses. "
In addition, the UBS Wealth Management Investment Director's Office (CIO) expects oil prices to continue to be under pressure in the next few weeks. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the Union (OPEC +) production reduction agreement will only take effect in May. 20% impact. The delivery of oil from oil-producing countries to consumer countries is a long process, and it may not be until June to fully show the impact of production cuts.
"In the second quarter," the problem of full oil "is serious, but with the removal of the epidemic prevention and control restrictions and economic recovery, we believe that the supply and demand of oil in the third quarter will be balanced, and there will even be oversupply in the fourth quarter." CIO analysis believes that WTI and Brent oil prices are expected to rise from about $ 20 in the middle of the year to $ 40 and $ 43 at the end of the year. (Finish)