(Fighting against New Coronary Pneumonia) International financial institutions look at China's economic data: confident in strong recovery in the second quarter
China News Agency, Beijing, April 18: Question: International financial institutions look at China's economic data: Confident in the strong recovery in the second quarter
Xia Bin
China's economic "transcript" in the first quarter of this year was released recently. Although the quarterly GDP growth rate hit a historical low, it was also possible to observe a full recovery in March data. What do international financial institutions think of China's economic performance in the first quarter?
Provide reference to the world as expected
According to Lu Tingwei, a senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets, given that China ’s Lunar New Year arrived earlier this year, it followed the “closing the city” measures across the country to contain the new crown pneumonia epidemic. Affected, so GDP in the first quarter fell significantly.
Qu Hongbin, chief economist of HSBC Bank Greater China, said bluntly: "China's economic figures provide a reference to the global economic performance to a certain extent. It will reach double digits. Especially economies such as Europe and the United States, which mainly consumes and services, should be more seriously affected than China. "
"Flash" in March is expected to usher in a strong recovery
In the overall weak economic data in the first quarter, March's performance was "flashing": China's major economic indicators, including industry, services, investment, consumption, and import and export, etc., saw a sharp decline in year-on-year decline, showing a rebound.
Zhou Wenqun, head of equity and fund manager at Fidelity International China, said: "Most production and consumption activities have been resumed in March, so I am confident in the strong recovery in the second quarter of 2020."
Lu Tingwei specifically mentioned that the most important macro data in March was the record credit growth. The total financing in March increased by 5.2 trillion yuan, five times the amount in February. Bank loans are the most direct channel for providing credit to households and private companies, and account for the largest share of credits, which means more companies are resuming work.
Zhu Haibin, chief economist at JP Morgan China, said that a "V-shaped rebound" in China's economic growth in the second quarter is expected. Although the forecast data for the second quarter is lower than the previous years, it is undoubtedly a significant improvement compared to the first quarter of this year, and the chain growth rate will show a clear "V" trend. The prevention and control of the epidemic. "
Policies are expected to have room for future adjustments
From finance to currency, China has issued a series of "combination punches" to restore the economy. Qu Hongbin believes that the bailout measures issued by the Chinese government as a whole are relatively mild, and it is expected that further large-scale policy measures will be introduced in the future.
He pointed out that compared with the global central bank, the Chinese central bank still has some room to cut interest rates. "We expect that the deposit rate will fall by 20 to 30 basis points in the future, and the LPR will fall by 50 basis points. In addition, the fiscal deficit rate and the issuance of special bonds will also expand."
Lu Tingwei said that the retail sales data for the first quarter was much lower than expected, which indicates that China still has room for improvement in improving liquidity transmission and reviving domestic demand. (Finish)