Hubei is gradually recovering from the impact of the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic. Due to the short-term difficulties in consumption and exports, investment has become a strong shot.

In order to give full play to the key role of effective investment in steady growth and to minimize the losses caused by the epidemic, Hubei recently announced "Several Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of Major Projects and Focusing on Expanding Effective Investment" (hereinafter "Opinions"), Seize policy opportunities such as special bonds, special national bonds, and the "14th Five-Year Plan", plan to launch a number of major projects such as new infrastructure, new economy, high technology, medical health, traditional infrastructure, and promote projects to speed up and improve efficiency, and strive to top 100 The gap was filled in days, and the sprint in the next 100 days caught up with last year's progress.

At the same time, all parts of Hubei are focusing on the resumption of production and resumption of production of projects with a value of more than 100 million yuan. As of April 13, the rate of reinstatement of personnel in Hubei provinces with projects of more than 100 million yuan was 86.3%. Since the Spring Festival, there have been 896 new projects with more than 100 million yuan.

Professor Luo Zhi, director of the Department of Economics of Wuhan University, told the First Financial Reporter that Hubei has made up for part of the fixed asset investment losses during the epidemic by accelerating effective investment. It is estimated that it can cover losses of 180 billion to 320 billion yuan. In addition, Hubei should also increase its efforts to ensure that as many small and medium-sized enterprises as possible survive.

Leverage central funds to plan projects

In recent years, Hubei's economic development momentum has been good. The gross regional product (GDP) has risen from the 11th place in the country ten years ago to the 7th place in 2019, surpassing 4.5 trillion yuan. But this sudden epidemic disrupted the normal economic and social order.

In order to prevent the spread of the epidemic, Wuhan closed the city on January 23, and other parts of Hubei took the same measures one after another. The province's economy was once stagnant. As the epidemic stabilized in late March, other parts of Hubei began to unblock, and Wuhan was also on the 4th. Officially released on 8th.

Affected by the epidemic, Hubei's economy was stagnant for about two months. Luo Zhi's team used the GDP expenditure nuclear algorithm combined with the multiplier effect to estimate that the annual economic loss caused by Hubei's shutdown for two months was between 0.7 trillion and 1.05 trillion yuan.

On the premise of not relaxing the prevention and control of the epidemic, Hubei has accelerated the resumption of production and production of enterprises, accelerated the recovery of economic and social order on the right track, and tried its best to reduce the losses caused by the epidemic.

According to Hubei Provincial Development and Reform Commission data, as of April 13, the province has resumed 44,018 “four-up” enterprises, with a return rate of 98%; 6.18 million people have been on duty, with a return rate of 87.2%.

However, under the potential impact of the epidemic, consumption is difficult to recover in the short term, and the outbreak of foreign epidemics also makes exports difficult to pull. Speeding up effective investment has become a common choice for all regions, including Hubei, to boost the economy. Hubei announced the "Opinions", demanding to seize policy opportunities to plan major projects.

In February this year, Hubei ’s fiscal revenue was only more than 300 million yuan, and March ’s fiscal revenue was also low. Local financial resources were unprecedentedly nervous and must take advantage of the current plans for major projects.

The Politburo meeting held on March 27 emphasized the need to strengthen support for Hubei's economic and social development, formulate special support policies, help Hubei solve financial, financing, supply chain and other practical difficulties, and support Hubei to help enterprises, stabilize positions, Promote employment, protect people's livelihood and other work.

Against this background, the "Opinions" require that Hubei plan major projects first by focusing on central investment.

That is to focus on 66 special projects in 8 areas supported by investment in the central budget, and 32 special projects in 4 areas supported by the central government's special national debt, especially emergency medical treatment capabilities, disease prevention and control systems, county-level medical diagnosis and treatment capabilities, and county counties as the main Carriers such as new urbanization infrastructure, urban old community transformation, medical waste and hazardous waste and sewage treatment facilities, emergency materials storage system construction and other shortcomings are classified as permissible, accessible, declarable, and sustainable. "Can" require the preparation of a three-year rolling investment plan and timely push the national major construction project library.

Shi Wenwen, director of the Research Center for Finance and Taxation Law of China University of Political Science and Law, told First Finance that the epidemic has caused significant losses to Hubei. The central government will definitely tilt Hubei on major projects, and fiscal transfer payments will also increase support and special debts will also be limited. Tilt to help Hubei get on track for economic development at an early date. In order to respond to the epidemic, a positive fiscal policy needs to be exerted. It is expected that the scale of investment in the central budget this year may approach 1 trillion yuan, and the scale of special national debt will reach trillions of yuan.

In addition, according to the "Opinions", Hubei should plan projects around the "14th Five-Year Plan".

For example, keep an eye on the major projects of "Science and Technology Innovation 2030", build national laboratories, national science centers and other major innovation platforms, strive for a number of major scientific and technological infrastructure projects to enter the national plan; New infrastructure projects such as computing centers, industrial Internet, and the Internet of Things; centering on breaking through key core technologies, advancing the autonomy of key components, major technical equipment, and key materials, and planning a number of "core screen end network" projects.

In addition, Hubei will also focus on the “house economy”, online education, unmanned retail, intelligent distribution, smart medical treatment and other new technologies, new industries, new formats, and new models that have been caused by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, and plan a number of new economic projects.

"This year, Hubei plans major projects. In the past, in addition to the traditional infrastructure, it has paid more attention to innovation, such as pushing new infrastructure and new economic projects, and focusing on shortcomings in the medical and health period during the epidemic, such as multiple declarations of emergency medical treatment. Capacity, disease prevention and control system, emergency supplies reserve system and other related projects. "Luo Zhi said.

Aware of the shortcomings in the preliminary work of the project declaration, the "Opinions" require a longer length to insist on problem-oriented and solidify the preliminary work, including actively completing the preliminary work requirements, strengthening the fine management of the preliminary work and investing the preliminary work funds.

Pay close attention to implementation

In order for this plan to be implemented as soon as possible, Hubei has set a responsible team, timetable and road map.

Hubei Province established a leading group to promote the construction of major projects and do a good job in investment stability, with Hubei Province Governor Wang Xiaodong as the team leader, Hubei Province Executive Vice Governor Huang Chuping as the deputy team leader, and the main department leaders as members. Each city (prefecture) should establish a corresponding leadership system and working mechanism. The three cities (prefectures) after the province ’s investment and major project special evaluation will be interviewed, and the top three will have incentives in terms of pre-funds and land use indicators.

"This is not uncommon in other places, and it can be seen that the investment efforts are strong." A Hubei official commented.

Hubei launched a “100-day tough” special action on government-invested projects, a special action on speeding up and improving efficiency for key provincial projects, a special action on “being brighter” for new start-up projects, and major projects of more than 100 million yuan in the province in 2020 Carry out special actions for supervision.

The "Opinions" require that all 125 projects in the central budget that have not been started since 2019 must be started before the end of June 2020; projects that are to be invested in the central budget in 2020 and the central government's special government bonds and special government bonds must be available before August 15, 2020 Start all constructions, form a physical workload as soon as possible, and give full play to government investment benefits. At present, Hubei has successfully issued government bonds of 49.188 billion yuan, including special bonds of 23.744 billion yuan. These funds are invested in major project construction.

For example, 2.272 billion yuan was invested in the Wuhan section of the Wuhan-Yangxin Expressway, and 2 billion yuan of special debt funds were invested in the Wuhu to Wujiashan section of the Fourth Ring Line of Wuhan City. 1.595 billion yuan and 1 billion yuan were invested in Wuhan Metro Line 16 and Line 11. Of the total of 52 projects recently funded by Hubei issuing 14 to 19 special bonds, 11 projects involved hospitals. For example, the new project of the Second People's Hospital of Xianning City with an investment of 100 million yuan.

In addition, Hubei ranked the proportion of the number of provincial-level key projects, the proportion of total investment, and the month-on-month investment volume of each city (state) to promote the speed and efficiency of projects, and strive to fill the gap in the first 100 days and sprint in the next 100 days. Catch up with last year's progress.

In order to allow major projects to start as soon as possible, Hubei also carried out system innovation. For example, to encourage the implementation of "standard land" transfer methods, all localities should study and propose relevant indicators such as leading industries, project direction, investment intensity, etc., and publicize the concession conditions at one time to promote the project to "start with land".

According to the "Opinions", by the end of 2020, the proportion of newly-used industrial land in the national development zone shall be not less than 20% in Wuhan, at least 10% in Xiangyang and Yichang, and other cities (states) Not less than 5%. In 2021, it will be fully promoted on a larger scale.

Cheng Yongwen, director of the Hubei Provincial Development and Reform Commission, recently held a special symposium to speed up the construction of new infrastructure in Hubei Province by seizing opportunities and studying specific countermeasures.

Many companies have also accelerated their investment in Hubei. For example, Hubei Mobile has built 2,000 5G base stations in the province, and it is expected that about 10,000 5G base stations will be opened in Hubei this year. Hubei has previously proposed to strive to exceed 200 billion yuan in output value of 5G core industry in 3 years. In addition, groups such as Tencent, JD.com and Alibaba have recently announced that they will increase investment and construction in Hubei's digital industry, smart cities, and new infrastructure.

Hubei's "core screen terminal network" industry scale has reached 300 billion yuan. According to the Hubei government work report this year, it will accelerate the construction of major projects such as the second phase of the national memory base and the second phase of Tianma G6. Relying on 3 national-level innovation centers, focusing on breakthroughs in key core technologies such as mid- to high-end chips.

In terms of traditional infrastructure, Hubei has made clear that it will start construction this year of the Shiyan-Xi'an high-speed railway, the Wuhan-Yichang section of the high-speed railway along the river, the Xiangyang-Jingmen section of the Hunan high-speed railway, and the Jingmen-Jingzhou inter-city railway. 2 projects along the Wuhan-Hefei section of the high-speed railway along the river. Accelerate the construction of key projects such as the second phase of water resources allocation in northern Hubei, diversion of rivers to supplement Han, “one river and three rivers”, and diversion of water to supplement water. Accelerate the construction of Jinsha River hydropower and Hubei UHV power transmission project.

"If Hubei Province can recover the government investment in the epidemic shutdown period, the GDP loss can recover 181.2 billion to 323.4 billion yuan. If the central government can give some good policies in the later period, it may be able to recover some losses. Luo Zhi said.

She believes that at present, small and medium-sized private enterprises are struggling to survive, and Hubei must also ensure the survival of Hubei private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises as much as possible. If the private enterprises are stable, the employment and the livelihood of Hubei will be stable. If the private economy is stable, the economy of Hubei will be stable.

At present, Hubei has introduced many measures to support it in terms of reducing tax burden, financial support, and optimizing the business environment.

Chen Yijian