The shutdown of the economy, because of the coronavirus epidemic, will have serious consequences, and not only for companies, warns Monday in his editorial Nicolas Barré. The worst economic depression in 80 years could lead to social and human disaster.
This is the debate which is rising very quickly in economic circles: should the constraints of containment be eased to avoid completely anaesthetizing the economy?
And obviously the answer is not simple. This Monday evening, the head of state should also explain why it is necessary to maintain strict confinement for several more weeks. Problem: the longer the economy will be shutdown, the more the consequences will be severe (social, human and even health consequences).
We are about to experience the worst economic depression in 80 years. As we know, an economic depression also generates human tragedies: unemployment of course, but also depressions, suicides, less good access to care, less good prevention. And ultimately, premature deaths that could have been avoided.
And it is these consequences that governments are beginning to take into account in their containment decisions.
Yes, this debate is mounting everywhere. A study published in The Lancet by American and British researchers has shown that the 2008 economic crisis caused 260,000 deaths in OECD countries. More than double the balance sheet to date of Covid-19.
Why? Because the surge in unemployment has resulted in poorer medical care, less prevention and as a result certain pathologies such as cancers were detected later.
The current confinement, moreover, worries doctors because many patients postpone their consultations. The coming global economic crisis will have serious health consequences. It will make victims. It is also a parameter that governments must integrate into their containment decisions.