- The future of the aircraft is more than threatened by the coronavirus crisis. The shortfall of companies already amounts to more than 250 billion dollars, and half of them could disappear by June.
- In a study presented this Thursday, the consulting firm Archery estimates that it will take three years to recover the traffic level of 2019. And ten years to return to the pre-crisis trajectory.
Three years to return to the 2019 traffic level, and ten years to return to the pre-crisis trajectory. And this is only the optimistic scenario established by the consultancy firm Archery Strategy Consulting (ASC), in a study presented this Thursday on the prospects for a way out of the crisis for aviation and aeronautics. In the pessimistic scenario, the traffic growth curve forecast before the crisis will not be found.
This note is in keeping with the many alarmist analyzes of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the aviation sector.
The hecatomb if it continues until June?
"If we continue like this, half of the airlines will disappear in June," predicted Alexandre de Juniac, director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) Thursday evening. Already on March 24, IATA already estimated the shortfall at more than 250 billion dollars [230 billion euros] for airlines. Or 30% of their overall annual turnover.
It must be said that the airlines have been shutdown or almost for several weeks. This is the case for 90% of the fleet of Air France-KLM or the German airline Lufthansa. The first would have a little more margin than the second, according to the tables established by Archery according to the cash of the airlines, indicates Le Monde . The Franco-Dutch company thus has six months of survival before it before bankruptcy, when Lufthansa has only three. Just like the American Delta.
All the same, these three large companies are among the best off. Because of their weight in the economy, the large number of their employees or the air connectivity they bring to their country, they will be saved by the States. "Air France will benefit from massive support from the State," said Bruno Le Maire, Minister of the Economy, last Wednesday at the JT of France 2. Small companies, on the other hand, risk disappearing.
Manufacturers and airports embarked on the turmoil
In any event, "companies will have no choice but to resize themselves, to tighten their fleets", and also to delay the renewal of their aircraft, says Archery. In turn, therefore, the entire aviation sector could be permanently affected. From airports to maintenance companies, including aircraft manufacturers. "The drop in air traffic will impact aircraft demand between 40 and 60% over the next five years compared to the production carried out in 2018, ie between 3,000 and 5,000 aircraft deliveries against 8,000 in 2018", estimates Archery in his study. Boeing, already stuck for more than a year in the crisis of its 737 MAX, could emerge even more weakened, specifies Le Monde. The American aircraft manufacturer has already set up a voluntary departure plan, announced its CEO, Dave Calhoun, on April 2.
On the airport side, Archery also expects plans to increase capacity, reports La Tribune. Like terminal 4 at Roissy-Charles de Gaulle, planned for 2028.
World
Coronavirus: European Union agrees on a common economic response
Society
Coronavirus: France, which has nearly 11,000 deaths, is preparing for an extension of confinement
- Coronavirus
- Containment
- Air France
- Airline company
- Plane
- Economy