China News Service Client, Beijing, April 10 (Xie Yiguan) The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March on March 10. The market generally expects that the March CPI year-on-year increase may shrink or return to "4 era".

CPI chart. From the National Bureau of Statistics

March CPI year-on-year increase may shrink

The sudden new coronary pneumonia epidemic has had a more complicated impact on the price trend. In February, the CPI rose by 5.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

How was the CPI increase in March? According to Wind Information Statistics, the average forecast of 17 research institutions for the year-on-year increase of CPI in March was 4.8%. Among them, the predicted maximum value is 5.3%, and the minimum value is 4.2%. If the above average predicted value is fulfilled, the March CPI increase will be 0.4 percentage points lower than that of February and return to the "4 era".

According to the monitoring of the “National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System” by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the “Agricultural Wholesale Prices 200 Index” in March was 129.35, a decrease of 6.38 points from the previous month and an increase of 13.12 points from the same period last year. On the 7th, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that a total of nine batches of central frozen pork reserves were placed after the Spring Festival, which has formed an effective guide for the price of fresh pork. The price of fresh pork has continued to decline since mid-February.

The carding found that most brokerage agencies expect the year-on-year increase in March CPI to shrink from the previous month. Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, pointed out that the cumulative price of vegetables fell more than 13% in the first three weeks of March, and the prices of fruits, eggs, and poultry all declined to varying degrees. The wholesale price of pork continued its downward trend, falling to about 47 yuan / kg in late March, and the prices of beef and lamb also declined to varying degrees.

"International crude oil prices have fallen sharply, bringing down the cost of domestic fuel oil and some industrial consumer products, and promoting non-food prices. The third week of March, the non-food comprehensive high-frequency index fell sharply by 3.85%, indicating that non-food prices will further decline." Tang Jianwei Said.

"In addition, the tail-lifting factor in March rose to 3.34%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, which has a certain effect on the CPI year-on-year." Tang Jianwei said that combining the above factors, the CPI year-on-year increase in March is expected to fall back, possibly in Between 4.7-5.0%, the median value is 4.9%.

At the same time, some organizations expect that after the epidemic in March has eased, some of the previously backlogged demand for goods and services will be released in a concentrated manner, superimposing the tail-lifting factors, etc., and it is expected that the CPI's year-on-year increase will remain at around 5%.

Data map: The flow of people in the Hohhot vegetable market is surging. Photo by Liu Wenhua

What is the future trend of CPI increase?

"Basically, work has resumed since the end of March, and there are holidays such as Ching Ming Festival in the second quarter to promote consumption." Cao Heping, a professor at the School of Economics at Peking University, told reporters that with the implementation of policy measures such as supply and price stabilization, the CPI is expected to increase in the second quarter It will be below 4%.

For the previous important driver of the CPI rise-pork price, China Development Securities analyst Du Zhengzheng analyzed that even if there is room for month-on-month rises in pork prices in the future, the year-on-year trend may mainly decline steadily, which weakens the CPI's pulling effect marginally.

"Structural inflation will continue for some time, but after the short-term epidemic and the impact of the short-term pork supply and demand gap, the CPI will fall more clearly. It is expected that the growth rate in the third quarter will be more than 3%, and the fourth quarter may accelerate to fall within 2%." Du Zhengzheng said.

Peng Shaozong, deputy director of the Price Division of the National Development and Reform Commission and first-level inspector, also pointed out on March 19 that under the current and future steady recovery of hog production capacity, pork prices will fall back, and China's industrial and agricultural products supply comparison Sufficient, the service industry is developing rapidly, and the foundation for stable price operation is solid. It is expected that this year's CPI will show a trend of high and low, and the overall price operation will remain within a reasonable range throughout the year. (Finish)