It was predictable but the fall is still painful. According to an estimate, published Wednesday by the Bank of France, French GDP recorded a decline of 6% in the first quarter of 2020. The country thus enters a recession, a direct consequence of the coronavirus pandemic which is currently raging.
This estimate corresponds to the worst quarterly performance of the French economy since 1945. With the GDP having already declined by 0.1% in the fourth quarter, according to the latest data from the national statistics institute Insee, France is therefore technically in recession.
Fifteen confinements = -1.5% of GDP over one year
Activity was notably lower by around a third (-32%) than normal over the last fortnight in March, according to the Banque de France's assessment, based on a survey of 8,500 companies. "We have to go back to the second quarter of 1968, marked by the events of May, to find a quarterly drop in activity of the same order of magnitude", but still lower, she details in her conjuncture note. GDP then fell 5.3%.
In line with INSEE estimates, the French central bank estimates that each fortnight of confinement results in a 1.5% drop in GDP over a year. But she warns that this figure "should not be extrapolated improperly", the intensity of the effects of confinement may change as it lengthens. Started on March 17, it must last at least until April 15.
Economy
Coronavirus in Pays-de-la-Loire: A fund to advance money to small businesses
- Sport
- Covid 19
- Coronavirus
- GDP
- Recession