Under the new crown epidemic, how many grain export restrictions affect China's grain security?

Under the new crown epidemic situation, how many countries have restricted grain exports, and what is the impact on China's grain security?

Recently, affected by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, some countries have issued grain export bans one after another. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations also warned that the epidemic caused labor shortages and supply chain disruptions, which may affect food security in some countries and regions.

This has caused the public to worry about food security. China ’s food is enough to eat and whether to hoard or not has become a hot topic. On April 4, the State Council ’s joint defense and joint control mechanism held a press conference on the situation of food supply and security during the epidemic. The relevant persons in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the State Food and Material Reserve Bureau answered related questions.

The conference conveyed many important signals: China ’s food rations are absolutely safe and secure, per capita food consumption continues to be higher than the world average, and the two major rations of wheat and rice stocks are roughly equivalent to the annual consumption of the people of the country.

In an interview with the Surging News (www.thepaper.cn), Hu Glacier, a researcher of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also stated that China ’s grain production has been bumper year after year and has sufficient reserves. The staple food crops such as rice and wheat are very dependent on the international market. The restrictions on the coming agricultural products will not affect China's food security.

What is the overall situation of food security in China?

According to incomplete statistics, 7 countries have begun to restrict or ban food exports. Among them, Vietnam, the world ’s third largest rice exporter, announced that it will suspend the signing of new rice export contracts; Cambodia will ban the export of white rice and rice, and only allow the export of fragrant rice; Kazakhstan will implement a quota system for wheat and flour exports.

Will the above measures affect domestic food security? Wei Baigang, Director of the Development Planning Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, provided four sets of data. One is grain output. In recent years, China ’s grain harvest has been steadily increasing for more than five years. It has been stable at more than 1.3 trillion catties for five consecutive years. Last year, the grain output was 1.3277 trillion catties, a record high. The supply and demand of wheat have been in balance for many years. Guaranteed.

The second is the amount of food per capita. Since 2010, China's per capita food consumption has continued to be higher than the world average, exceeding 470 kilograms in 2019, far higher than the international standard of food security of 400 kilograms per capita.

The third is grain stocks. At present, China's food stocks are sufficient, and the stock consumption ratio is much higher than the 17% -18% safety level proposed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. The two major rations of wheat and rice stocks are roughly equivalent to the annual consumption of people across the country.

Fourth, China's cereal imports. China's annual cereal imports are not large. Last year's net imports were 14.68 million tons, accounting for only about 2% of China's cereal consumption. In addition, the imported grains are mainly strong gluten wheat and Thai rice, etc. The main purpose is to adjust the demand structure and better meet the personalized and diversified consumption needs of people.

So is it necessary to snap up food for hoarding? "We still have to eat new food." Wei Baigang said that China's grain output is abundant and stocks are sufficient. Even when the domestic epidemic was serious in the previous stage, the grains and various types of non-staple foods on the market were full and stable, and the people My family is worried about rice noodles, and now there is no need to buy hoards.

Pan Wenbo, director of the Department of Planting Management of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, also emphasized that the area of ​​grain planting intentions this year has been steadily increasing slightly. At present, the growth of summer grain is good, the harvest is well established, the spring sowing is generally smooth, and grain production has a good start. "The grain harvest has been abundant for many years, and the inventory is relatively abundant; the summer grain harvest is expected to be good, and the spring sowing is progressing smoothly; the rations are completely self-sufficient and the international influence is limited; the rice noodles are available for purchase, and there is no need to hoard and buy."

Will the rise in international food prices be transmitted domestically?

Wei Baigang said frankly that due to the impact of the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic, international food prices have indeed risen recently, and food security has once again become a hot issue in the world. We should treat it calmly and rationally. He explained that the current world food supply is sufficient, the world food supply (excluding soybeans) in 2019/2020 is 3.47 billion tons, the total demand is 2.67 billion tons, the ending stocks are nearly 800 million tons, and the stock consumption ratio is nearly 30 %, From the perspective of global supply, there is no shortage.

"The recent increase in international food prices is more affected by panic consumption caused by the epidemic. China ’s net cereal imports last year were 14.68 million tons, accounting for about 2% of China ’s total cereal consumption. The impact of rising international food prices on domestic food prices is very significant. Limited. "Wei Baigang mentioned that since March, the retail price of rice in China is 6.6 yuan per kilogram and the retail price of flour is 3.95 yuan per kilogram. The price remains stable and the market supply is stable. The most important thing is that China has sufficient wheat and rice stocks. Once the grain market fluctuates, China has sufficient control measures to calm down and is fully capable of coping with external influences.

Hu Glacier also mentioned that the existing food export restrictions are mainly a stress response to panic outbreaks. Another result is that global agricultural product prices have recently increased to a certain extent, ranging from 8-10%. The increase in global food prices has a certain transmission effect on China's food prices, but the impact will not be great. At present, China's cereals have a low dependence on the international market, and imports and exports of rice and wheat are mainly varieties. Corn and soybeans will be affected to a certain extent, but the impact is limited, and it will bring a wave of declines after the epidemic ends.

In his view, the most significant transmission at present is the price of edible vegetable oil, mainly because China's soybean, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are highly dependent on the global supply chain, and since the second half of 2019, global edible vegetable oil has generally entered the price In the rising stage, the impact of the epidemic situation has superimposed, and the domestic edible vegetable oil prices have increased. It can be expected that the increase will be relatively limited and within the controllable range.

Will soybean imports be affected by the international epidemic?

As the largest importer of soybeans, China's soybean imports have also received considerable attention under the spread of the epidemic. Wei Baigang said that at present, the normal import of soybeans in our country has not been affected.

According to its introduction, soybean is China's largest agricultural product imported, mainly used for oil extraction and soybean meal feed. Last year, China imported 88.51 million tons of soybeans, which accounted for about 85% of domestic consumption, of which Brazil, the United States, and Argentina imported 65%, 19%, and 10%, respectively. From January to February this year, soybean imports were 13.51 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%.

"The export volume of Brazilian soybeans to China in March increased. At present, our country's normal soybean imports have not been affected." Wei Baigang explained that Brazilian soybeans are now in the harvest season, and this year's output may increase to about 121 million tons. Exports Will also increase. Most of the Brazilian soybean production exports are sold to China, and the soybeans must be sold in time after harvest, so Brazil is taking active measures from farmers to the government to try to keep exports smooth. In addition, in the second half of April, the soybean planting in the United States entered the sowing period. It is expected that the soybean planting area will increase, and the first phase of the economic and trade agreement reached between China and the United States at the beginning of the year will be implemented. Imports of soybeans from the United States may increase this year.

At present, the epidemic of New Coronary Pneumonia continues to spread, while Brazil, Argentina, and the United States are relatively serious countries. Wei Baigang said that the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will closely monitor the impact of the epidemic on soybean imports in China. On the one hand, strengthen monitoring and early warning, and strengthen coordination with major exporting countries to minimize the impact of the epidemic on the soybean supply chain. At the same time, the process is further optimized to improve import efficiency. On the other hand, it will continue to promote the soybean revitalization plan, take multiple measures to stabilize domestic soybean production, and ensure soybean supply.

"At present, although the personnel exchanges in these countries are affected, the bulk goods trade is still functioning normally." Hu Glacier mentioned that unless the epidemic of major food exporting countries such as the United States, Brazil, and Argentina is so severe that it affects all its normal trade, economic activities such as ports, etc. If it is not carried out, it will affect the global food trade.

What are the measures for emergency food security?

Regarding food emergency security, Wang Hong, director of the Department of Safety Storage and Science and Technology of the State Food and Material Reserve Bureau, said that after years of hard work, China has initially established a food emergency security system that meets national conditions. Judging from the response to the new crown epidemic situation, the grain emergency security system has played an active role. Specifically speaking, it has achieved the "four haves", that is, the security system is supported, market fluctuations are monitored, changes are planned, and the city is responsible for ensuring supply and stability.

He mentioned that in addition to sufficient raw grain reserves, China has established large and medium-sized cities with concentrated populations and areas with volatile prices. It has established a 10 to 15-day product grain reserve, and has also deployed a number of emergency processing enterprises and emergency Supply outlets, emergency distribution centers and emergency storage and transportation enterprises. At present, there are 44,601 emergency food supply outlets, 5,388 emergency processing enterprises, 3,170 emergency distribution centers, and 3,454 emergency storage and transportation enterprises.

According to reports, China's grain stocks are divided into three categories: government reserves include central reserve grains and local grain reserves, which are "ballast stones" to keep the bottom line, stabilize expectations, and ensure safety; policy inventory is the state's minimum purchase price, temporary Stocks formed by policies such as purchase and storage, this part of the inventory is quite considerable, and it is publicly auctioned in the market all year round; enterprise commodity inventory refers to the self-owned inventory that the enterprise needs to establish for business turnover. There are currently more than 40,000 integrated enterprises.

Qin Yuyun, director of the Grain Reserve Department of the National Grain and Material Reserve Bureau, said that in recent years, the total amount of grain stocks has continued to run at a high level. At present, China ’s rice and wheat stocks can meet the market demand for more than one year. Many urban flours, rice, etc. The supply capacity of the finished grain market is over 30 days.

"Since the outbreak, the grain and material reserve department has strengthened market grain resource dispatching and organized an orderly auction of policy grain sources to effectively protect market demand. So far, no central reserve grains have been used. Except for individual cities and counties, most areas No local grain reserves have been used, "he said.