China-Singapore Jingwei Client, April 3rd According to data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, on April 3rd, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was downgraded by 109 basis points to 7.1104, which was downgraded for two consecutive days. On the previous trading day, the median price of RMB against the US dollar was 7.0995, the closing price at 16:30 was 7.0977, and the closing price at 23:30 was 7.0821 at night.
Screenshot source: China Foreign Exchange Trading Center
The US dollar index rose on the 2nd. The US dollar index, which measures the US dollar against six major currencies, rose 0.50% on the day and closed at 100.1691 in the late market.
In addition, the central bank announced on the 3rd that the current total liquidity of the banking system is at a reasonable and sufficient level, and no reverse repurchase operation will be carried out on April 3. Wind data shows that today's non-reverse repurchase expires, and the central bank's open market net investment of 70 billion yuan this week.
The central bank published a paper on the 2nd, stating that it will continue to promote the transition of the monetary policy regulatory framework to a price-based model. Clearly pay attention to coordinating domestic and foreign currency policies, and handle the balance between internal and external equilibrium. I mainly take into account the external balance, grasp the balance of maintaining the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate, improving the macro-prudential policy of cross-border capital flows, and strengthening the international coordination of macro-policy.
Zhang Jiantai, chief strategist at Mizuho Bank Asia, believes that the US Federal Reserve ’s zero interest rate policy and unlimited QE have exacerbated the advantage of US dollar yields, and the US dollar adjustment will provide support for emerging market currencies, including the RMB. The RMB is expected to return to 7 in the coming months about.
Zhang Jiantai pointed out that compared with other emerging market countries, a large number of US dollar positions are needed to protect the national currency. On the one hand, China's foreign exchange reserves exceed 3 trillion, which is sufficient to ensure the steady fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate. Fluctuations, so the pressure to stabilize the exchange rate to prevent capital outflows is low.
CITIC Futures predicts that the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar will fluctuate around 7 yuan, depreciation and appreciation will continue to float in both directions, the foreign exchange market will run smoothly, and the exchange rate is expected to be stable. In the long run, the trend of the RMB exchange rate depends on economic fundamentals. As the domestic epidemic situation continues to improve and the resumption of work and productivity continues to increase, the long-term positive fundamentals of the Chinese economy will form a strong support for the stability of the RMB exchange rate. At the same time, the domestic and foreign currency spreads are still in a suitable range, and China's foreign exchange reserves are sufficient and stable, which also provides a strong support for the continued stability of the RMB exchange rate. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)