(Combating New Crown Pneumonia) Economic War "Epilepsy" Record: Chinese, American and European Experts See Is Economic "V" Recovery Possible?
China News Agency, Beijing, April 3rd (Xia Bin) The cumulative number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the world exceeded one million. Is it possible for the economy affected by the epidemic to achieve a "V" recovery? Recently, the China Development High-level Forum launched an online video conference on the "Global Economic Situation in the Epidemic", where experts from China, the United States and Europe jointly discussed the situation and trend of the world economy online.
With regard to the global economic trends, Lars Field, chairman of the German Economic Advisory Council, is generally more optimistic. He said that although the global economy will definitely decline due to the epidemic, taking into account the stimulus policies adopted by countries and the European Central Bank and other institutions, the economy should start to recover in the third quarter and the level of growth will rise to remain the same as before.
Field predicts that the overall euro area may experience a negative growth of 2.1% this year. Italy may fall 3.6%. If Germany can achieve a "V" recovery, other European countries will achieve positive growth in 2021. In addition, as the UK has "brexited", the economic downturn will be slightly smaller than in several other major European countries. The situation in the United States is more optimistic. Although GDP growth is expected to be 0.4% in 2020, it is expected to return to 2.6% in 2021. Japan will also fall into recession this year, and its economic growth rate is expected to be negative 1.6%.
In comparison, Kenneth Rogoff, the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, is more pessimistic. There are optimistic predictions that US GDP will fall by 20% in the second quarter, while Rogoff said that "this is an underestimation of the impact of the epidemic on the economy", and the investment community generally believes that work can be resumed at the end of May and can be fully restored by the end of the year. Normally, the tail risk is underestimated.
"In the current crisis situation, debt is expected to be high, and US debt levels may increase by 5 to 10 trillion US dollars. Although governments have introduced some stimulus measures, public and private sector defaults may continue to increase." Rogoff said.
In his view, a “V” recovery of the global economy is possible, but large-scale stimulus policies will leave some persistent after-effects, such as excessive debt levels. The crisis brought by this epidemic has impacted both the supply side and the demand side. Although the US government may introduce many favorable measures on the demand side, its response to the supply side may not be sufficient in the crisis.
Talking about the forecast of China's economy, Lin Yifu, the honorary dean of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, said that China's exports will be hit hard. Export trade is one of the main driving forces of China's economic growth. From January to February this year, in terms of US dollars, China ’s exports fell by 17.2%. In March, as Europe and the United States began to “catch the city” and “catch the country,” exports may continue. Down. (Finish)