Client of China and Singapore Jingwei on April 3rd. On the morning of the 3rd, the State Council Office held a press conference. The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission answered questions on the impact of the epidemic on China's economy and what the central bank will do in the next stage.
The central bank: will never let the market "money shortage"
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Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, pointed out that the three channels were more affected by the epidemic. The first is the industrial chain channel. If the enterprise needs to produce, the raw materials cannot be matched, and some industries and enterprises may not be able to produce it. The second is trade channels. After some enterprises and some products are produced, they cannot be sold and there are no orders. The third is the expected channel, which affects people's emotions, the risk aversion is strengthening, and the market is volatile.
Regarding whether the impact will exceed the 2008 financial crisis, Liu Guoqiang said that it has not yet exceeded. In the stock market, the stock markets of various countries have fallen by about 25% since February 24, and have fallen by about 50% during the 2008 financial crisis. What is clearer about the next step is that the International Monetary Fund recently stated that the global economy may experience negative growth in 2020, and the degree of recession may exceed the financial crisis of 2008.
In terms of its impact on China, Liu Guoqiang said: "The data for the first quarter have not yet come out. For example, according to the standard of no epidemic, the data will certainly not look good, but we must also see that from the comparison of March and February, March This is a marked improvement. Therefore, I think the impact of the epidemic on the Chinese economy is temporary. The Chinese economy will continue to show great resilience. In addition, we have abundant tools and sufficient policy space to stabilize economic growth. "
Liu Guoqiang also emphasized that in the next stage, from the perspective of the central bank, it is necessary to grasp according to different stages, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and fully meet market demand. There will never be a "money shortage" in the market. Of course, money should not be "grossed", and the growth rate of M2 and social financing will basically match the growth rate of nominal GDP and be slightly higher. Implement targeted directional reductions, and give play to the role of positive incentive guidance of reserve tools. Actively promote LPR reform, strengthen pricing self-discipline mechanism, guide banks to properly profit from the real economy, and promote the obvious decline in corporate comprehensive financing costs.
Whether to lower the benchmark interest rate for deposits must be considered by the public
Regarding the question of whether to lower the benchmark interest rate for deposits, Liu Guoqiang pointed out that the deposit interest rate is the ballast stone of the interest rate system and must be considered more in practice. Now the CPI is significantly higher than the one-year deposit rate. The deposit rate is 1.5% and the CPI is 5.3%. This issue needs to be considered. In addition, economic growth, internal and external balance factors, and whether interest rates are too low will increase pressure on currency depreciation. In particular, the deposit interest rate has a more direct relationship with ordinary people and can be used as a monetary policy tool, but it must be fully evaluated and considered by ordinary people.
Properly increase the deficit rate and issue special government bonds
According to Xu Hongcai, the Deputy Minister of Finance, according to the Central Committee ’s decision and deployment, in 2020, the fiscal deficit rate will be appropriately increased, special government bonds will be issued, and positive and clear signals will be released to the society to consolidate and enhance market confidence and support the completion of economic and social development goals throughout the year. Properly increase the deficit rate and issue special treasury bonds. According to legal procedures, the State Council must be submitted to the National People's Congress for review and approval. The specific plan will be determined by taking into account factors such as domestic and international economic situations, the need for national macro-control, and fiscal revenue and expenditure.
This year, 1.08 trillion yuan of new special bonds were issued
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According to Xu Hongcai, since the beginning of this year, in accordance with the decision-making and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, and in accordance with the authorization of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, the Ministry of Finance has issued in advance some 1,290 billion yuan of new special bonds in 2020. As of March 31, 2020, 1.08 trillion yuan of new special bonds were issued across the country, accounting for 84%, and the issuance scale increased by 63% year-on-year. It is expected to complete the scheduled issuance task about 2.5 months in advance.
Xu Hongcai said that this year's special debts should reflect the requirements to support economic and social development and epidemic prevention and control, including a reasonable expansion of scale; advancement and use of advancements; adherence to "funds go with projects"; optimize funding investment to reflect the need for epidemic prevention and control And changes in demand in the investment field; increasing the proportion of special bonds as capital for major projects, and increasing the role of leadership.
Special government debt is not used for land acquisition and storage and real estate related projects
Xu Hongcai stated that this year it is clear that the government's special debt will not be used for land acquisition and storage and real estate-related projects. At the same time, in accordance with the requirements of the Central Economic Work Conference, The use of debt has been adjusted, and the transformation of old urban communities into the support of special bonds.
China's government debt risk level is generally controllable
Xu Hongcai mentioned that, in general, the scale of China's government debt has increased over the years, but the increase is manageable. As of the end of 2019, China's local government debt was 21.31 trillion yuan. If the local government debt level is measured by the debt rate (debt balance / comprehensive financial resources), the local government debt rate in 2019 is 82.9%, which is lower than the internationally accepted warning standard. Adding 16.8 trillion yuan of central government debt as of the end of 2019, according to the GDP data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the debt ratio (debt balance / GDP) of the national government debt is 38.5%, which is lower than the EU's 60% warning line. Lower than the level of major market economy countries and emerging market countries. At present, the level of China's government debt risk is generally controllable.
China Banking Regulatory Commission: Resolutely clearing shareholders
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Regarding the issue of deepening reform and risk prevention of small and medium-sized banks, Zhou Liang, vice chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, said that recently, some small and medium-sized institutions have been investigated and dealt with inadequate equity management.
Zhou Liang said that currently affected by the epidemic and the economic downturn, some small and medium banks have also accumulated problems in the history, such as incomplete internal control and inadequate corporate governance, facing some risks and challenges. For such a small number of institutions, the CBRC will adopt a variety of methods, such as direct capital injection and reorganization, interbank acquisitions and mergers, the establishment of disposal funds, and the establishment of bridge banks, to accelerate reform and reorganization in accordance with actual conditions. At the same time, it will also fully evaluate the risks that may arise during disposal, make various plans, and firmly adhere to the bottom line that no systemic financial risks will occur.
China's banking industry has sufficient risk defenses
Liu Guoqiang pointed out that, overall, China's banking industry has a relatively strong ability to absorb losses and has sufficient ammunition to resist risks. By the end of 2019, the non-performing loan ratio of China's commercial banks was 1.86%, far below the 5% regulatory standard. The provision coverage ratio was 186.08%, and the balance of loan loss provisions reached 4.5 trillion yuan, so this cushion is sufficient to cope with the increase in non-performing ratio. In 2019, the banking industry disposed of 2.3 trillion yuan of non-performing assets, and the bank's asset quality control measures were diverse. Some banks are more sad, but have the ability to ease it.
Zhou Liang added that banks will continue to expand channels for capital replenishment this year, such as issuing various capital replenishment bonds, preferred stocks, and ordinary shares. These plans are step by step and vigorously promoted without major problems. No matter from the policy level, the market level, or the overall performance of banking institutions, China's banking industry is very stable.
Three aspects to reduce the comprehensive financing costs of small and medium-sized enterprises
Xu Hongcai mentioned that since the outbreak, the Ministry of Finance has attached great importance to the financing of small and micro enterprises. According to the deployment of the Executive Meeting of the State Council on March 31, the Ministry of Finance mainly works in the following three aspects:
First, require the national financing guarantee fund to increase the re-guarantee business scale by no less than 400 billion yuan in 2020. Invest in 10 prefecture-level city financing guarantee institutions with significant results in supporting agricultural and agricultural support. Fees, and the remaining re-guarantee fees will also be halved, that is, those above 1 million yuan will be halved.
Second, the government financing guarantee industry is required to halve fees and reduce the comprehensive financing guarantee fee rate to less than 1%. Ensure that the proportion of new small-scale businesses supporting agriculture and agriculture in 2020 must not be less than 80%.
Third, the extension of eligible entrepreneurial secured loans is allowed. The study further increased support groups, lowered the barriers to entry, and included key groups affected by the epidemic. It is expected that in 2020, one million individual entrepreneurs and 10,000 small and micro enterprises will be supported, with a growth rate of more than 50% over the previous year. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)