Will house prices rise after the epidemic? Will policy be loosened? Expert analysis, 8 hot topics in the property market that you are most concerned about →
Beginning on March 12, CCTV Finance New Media launched a series of special live broadcasts of the Financial Cloud Live, focusing on the global market and keeping up with hot market trends.
The currency easing mode is opened globally. Will property prices rise? Various localities have successively introduced policies for regulating the property market. How can real estate be stabilized without real estate and housing policies? What will happen to the real estate market after the epidemic?
On the evening of March 31, CCTV financial host Zhang Lin contacted CCTV financial commentator Ma Guangyuan to talk about the house.
Question 1: How big is the epidemic's impact on the real estate market?
Ma Guangyuan believes that when talking about real estate, we must pay attention to three major prerequisites:
The first is epidemic prevention and control. China has finished the first half and the number of confirmed diagnoses in other countries is still rising. The second is to resume production and China has normalized. The third is to respond to the epidemic. Global central banks have started printing machines. When the global central bank started printing horsepower, he had never seen a precedent for falling house prices.
Only when the Great Depression appeared and everyone was very pessimistic about the economy would there be a situation where water was released and asset prices dropped. His current judgment is that the scenery here in China is unique.
Question 2: Will policy be loosened?
The market that has risen too fast has basically ceased to exist, and excessively strict real estate policies are not conducive to the healthy and sustainable development of real estate. The basic setting of the Central Economic Work Conference last year was to adhere to the policy of housing and housing, and to implement policies based on the city.
Every time the economy goes down, everyone will pin their hopes on real estate. Some local governments have impulse in this regard. However, if such a serious violation of housing and living conditions occurs, I think it is inevitable to stop in time.
Question 3: Does the fine-tuning of policies mean that house prices are rising?
Not necessarily! China's real estate has reached today. The cycle of rapid rise and real estate speculation in the past 20 years has basically ended. Real estate has entered a new cycle. The main sign is the severe differentiation between cities and the severe differentiation between houses. Severely differentiated. In my words, the era of investing in real estate without IQ is basically over, and the history of rising in all cities is basically over. It cannot be said that once the policy is loose, housing prices will rise again.
First, the management should not worry; second, the people should not worry; third, developers should not be illusioned; fourth, real estate speculators should be alert.
Question 4: Shenzhen has risen by 10% some time ago.
Looking at the property market, there are two cities in China that are weather vanes, the first is Shenzhen and the second is Hangzhou. The prelude to the last round of real estate rise was that house prices in Hangzhou began to fall in 2014. After falling almost nine months, policies began to loosen, and Shenzhen began to soar in the next year. House prices rose nationwide in 2016, and rose in third and fourth tier cities in 2017. Many small counties rose in 2018.
The real estate fundamentals change in 2020 is that first-tier cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, will bid farewell to adjustments and return to the rise. Of course, this rise is incomparable to the past skyrocketing. It is normal for house prices to rise.
Question 5: How do the housing prices in cities outside the first tier go?
For some cities, the process of urbanization has not ended, and the trend of people to large cities has not ended. In this case, some people, industries, information, and logistics have regional advantages in all aspects of the city, regardless of size, as long as they have These characteristics may increase.
I am really optimistic about Wuhan. Wuhan will surely emerge as a first-class city in China and the largest city in central China. Because of tests such as the epidemic, it has greatly improved the management and competitiveness of all aspects of a city.
After the overall epidemic in Wuhan is over, those who buy the first house must hurry up.
Question 6: Can the first new and improved housing be started recently?
For many of the first buyers of real estate, this year can really look good. If you are very worried, wait for the epidemic to end. Don't worry, but if you basically have a judgment, don't hesitate.
When buying a house, study the fundamentals of the city's real estate, listen to the views of intermediaries, developers, and experts, and make a decision after comprehensive opinions.
In addition, improved models are currently available, as long as they are good cities, there are no particular problems.
Patience is a virtue, and patience is wealth. Don't worry.
Question 7: Will the mortgage interest rate slowly decrease?
Almost all experts are predicting that the decline in interest rates is a big trend. What I want to tell you is that when almost all experts say so, you must put a question mark, not necessarily.
You can look at the history of interest rate development. The short-term trend of interest rates can be explained. If there is no epidemic, China's interest rate decline in two to three years can be seen, but how to go in the long term, I really do n’t know. Inflation, how can interest rates go down, all central banks in the world do is to raise interest rates and keep raising them.
Question 8: Is it cost-effective to rent a long-term apartment?
I don't think people will rent a house for a long time. Renting a house is a short-term option.
For young people, there is no need to buy a house immediately after graduation. To solve the problem of renting houses for young people in first-tier cities, not only the market, but also the government must do something to provide a large number of rental products suitable for young people.
Source: CCTV Finance (ID: cctvyscj)
Producer: Ha Xuesheng
CCTV financial reporter: Zhang Lin, Wang Zheng, Zheng Zheng, Wang Xueqing, Li Yuan