Net loss predicted in the second quarter will reach 39 billion US dollars
Reporter Xu Huixi reports: According to the latest analysis report of the International Air Transport Association, global airline cash flow expenditures will reach USD 61 billion in the second quarter of this year, and a net loss of USD 39 billion in the second quarter.
Based on the analysis of the impact of the epidemic on the air transport industry, if the current strict travel restrictions continue for three months, the global air transport industry's demand will fall by 71% in the second quarter. According to this assumption, air transport demand for the whole year will drop by 38%, and passenger revenue for the year will plummet by US $ 252 billion.
The analysis pointed out that the huge loss of the aviation industry in the second quarter was mainly due to changes in income and expenditure. Among them, revenue is expected to decline by 68%, slightly lower than the previous 71% decline. This is mainly due to the continued operation of the air cargo business, some airlines opened "passenger-to-cargo" business, and strive to make up for losses. In terms of expenditure, it is expected that aviation capacity will fall by 65% in the second quarter, and variable costs will decline sharply by 70%. Aviation fuel prices will plummet. Fuel hedging adopted by companies will reduce revenue by 31%; fixed costs and semi-fixed Costs account for almost half of airline costs, and semi-fixed costs, including crew costs, are expected to decrease by a third. Airlines are struggling to retain staff and business, and look forward to regaining their wings after the epidemic is over.
In addition to the inevitable costs, due to travel restrictions introduced by various countries, airlines have suffered a large number of refunds, and there will be a high debt of 35 billion US dollars in the second quarter. As a result, the global air transport industry may fall into a "burn-in" model, with cash flow expected to drop sharply by $ 61 billion. "Despite how quickly airlines can cut costs, it will be difficult to escape the crisis caused by the epidemic crisis. Net losses in the second quarter, coupled with a potentially high The refund fee will be emptied of airline cash flow if timely rescue measures are not taken. "
It is reported that some countries have actively responded to the aviation industry's appeal and launched a number of relief measures. Countries such as China, Colombia, the United States, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand and Norway have announced packages of specific financial or regulatory assistance to aviation companies. Brazil, Canada, Colombia and the Netherlands have further relaxed regulations to allow airlines to provide passengers with travel vouchers and vouchers instead of refunds.
Under the unprecedented impact of the epidemic, the tourism industry has almost stopped. Insiders pointed out that airlines need to maintain a certain amount of working capital to maintain business until the epidemic is over. Some countries allow airlines to offer vouchers in lieu of cash refunds, helping the industry to stabilize again. Airlines can continue operations after gaining critical respite. This move will also help maintain air transport capacity, which is of great significance for the current vital cargo transportation and for the construction of aeronautical arterial connectivity that global passengers and economies rely on in the recovery phase and in the future.