Economic epidemic record: experts to mitigate the impact of the epidemic to analyze China's response policy

(Fighting New Crown Pneumonia) China's Economic War "Episode" Records: Experts Ease the Impact of China's Response to China's Policies

China News Agency, Beijing, March 27 (Reporter Chen Su) At present, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has impacted the whole world. How to mitigate the impact of the epidemic on the Chinese economy while fighting the epidemic? In the 126th "Economic Monthly Talk" of the China International Economic Exchange Center held on the 26th, many experts discussed.

According to Zhang Yongjun, deputy chief economist of the China International Economic Exchange Center, from the economic data of the first two months of China, investment, consumption and exports have all declined. As the epidemic spreads globally, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts the global economy There will be a recession, and expectations about the Chinese economy will decline.

Zhang Yongjun said that it is necessary to formulate a more scientific economic policy and provide impetus for economic recovery. In terms of expanding employment, in addition to introducing policies that give priority to employment such as wages and social security packages, consideration should also be given to increasing the proportion of flexible employment and flexible employment, which can promote local employment in terms of employment of migrant workers. In terms of resuming production and resuming work, we should consider solving the problem of isolation of personnel across regions. At present, resumption of work at different locations requires isolation for 14 days. This has a great impact on resumption. For the one-stop approach to work, we can consider simplifying the isolation process. Consider technically solving the problem of cross-provincial use of health codes.

In terms of fiscal policy, Zhang Yongjun said that China could further expand the deficit. In terms of monetary policy, China has adopted measures to reduce reserve ratios and interest rates in 2019. Recently, Europe and the United States have adopted larger quantitative easing policies. China should pay attention to changes in peripheral monetary policies, maintain a flexible orientation, and avoid external large-scale changes as much as possible. The impact of fluctuations, while further reforming the financial system, and unblocking the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.

Zhang Xiaoqiang, executive vice-chairman of the China International Economic Exchange Center, stated that in the event of a global epidemic, China's policies should focus on timely adjustments and improvements, and focus on industries affected by the epidemic in February, such as the service industry, the automotive industry, In the electronics manufacturing industry, the next step is to consider the impact of the shutdown in Japan, South Korea, and Europe on China's industrial supply chain. "China's automobiles, high-end robots, high-end machine tools, high-end chips and other important industrial materials are mainly imported, which is difficult to supply domestically. This epidemic also reminds China to seize the important opportunity to upgrade to the high-end industry."

Zhang Xiaoqiang said that we must also focus on coastal foreign trade enterprises. The large decline in overseas orders will affect the employment of hundreds of millions of people.

Regarding the current debate about whether China should expand investment to expand domestic demand, Zhang Yongjun said that in the current extraordinary period, it is necessary to expand domestic demand to supplement shortcomings by expanding investment. Investment that is in line with China's development direction, such as investment in medical facilities, urban old community renovation, and rural revitalization, should be strengthened.

As the first of the "troika" driving China's economy, Chinese consumption was hit hard in the first two months, and the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 20.5% year-on-year. In China's future policies, how should it promote consumption recovery?

Liu Xiangdong, deputy director of the Economic Research Department of the China International Economic Exchange Center, said that short-term replenishment can be implemented by issuing cash consumer coupons, taking multiple measures to release consumer demand for cars and home appliances, and reducing tickets to boost tourism service consumption. To promote the release of consumption in the medium and long term, it is necessary to further expand the service consumption required for a happy life in a happy industry such as tourism, promote the combination of online consumption and offline consumption, and develop new consumption hotspots. However, it should also be noted that due to the impact of lower income expectations, the consumption power of residents may decline, and it is necessary to stabilize employment and do a good job of resuming production and returning to work.

"Stabilizing foreign trade, investment, employment, and people's livelihood are the next tasks that China needs to focus on. If China is stable, then the global epidemic will have a stable foundation." Said Zhang Yansheng, chief researcher of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges. (Finish)