“The forecasts are very mixed and uncertain. We were faced with two shock situations. The first is a pandemic, which leads to the severance of economic ties and the suspension of production activities. The consequences are in her, as in the classic crisis. The second is the decline in oil prices. Forecasts are not encouraging, relief is unlikely to come before the start of summer. This is a crisis, but it is more acute and more difficult, ”Maslennikov said.
The expert stressed that official data in the world economy for the first quarter will appear only in mid-April, and it will be possible to talk about a recession only by mid-June.
According to him, some recovery can be expected due to "unprecedented measures to support global banks."
“For Russia, forecasts are also complicated. If we take the optimistic option, in which the world economy begins to recover in the second half of the year and oil prices stabilize, then for us this will mean a near-zero growth rate. This is an optimistic option. The working option is a drop from 0.5% to 1%. But any forecast today is an extremely thankless task. The situation is changing rapidly every day, ”the expert concluded.
Earlier, the publication of RBC, citing economists, reported that the Russian economy will survive a recession in 2020.
According to analysts, the decline in GDP may range from 0.8 to 3%.