Will the housing market rebound if the epidemic eases?
Reporter Cao Zheng
"It's gone, it's really gone!" Faced with the uninterrupted phone calls from buyers, a well-known real estate salesman in Suzhou, Xiao Chen Lianlian, said, "No." It was only sold out at the beginning of the weekend, and now it is almost sold out. Anyone who wants to buy it can only buy the second issue a few months later.
The reporter's investigation found that the epidemic situation has eased in many places, sales offices and second-hand housing agents have reopened, attracting a large number of buyers wearing masks. Is the bidding hot for real estate in the sales office too impulsive, or is it aimed at timing to make a bottom?
"I'm broken!" Demand for housing is released
Last Friday's Suzhou property market sent a signal of recovery to the outside world: several just-in-time property listings opened, and popular listings were "second light." A housing company announced that 1.2 billion sales in 60 seconds.
Not just the new home market. According to Lianjia data, the current value of second-hand housing in Suzhou Lianjia has increased by more than 100% for three consecutive weeks. At present, the proportion of price increases in the price adjustment is about 35%, which is 10% higher than the previous year. Earlier in the "Resilience Index City Ranking of Real Estate Market" released by the Shell Research Institute, Suzhou's recovery index ranked first. "Suzhou's overall economic vitality is strong, short-term epidemic situation is effectively prevented and controlled, and short-term market transactions are expected to rebound rapidly." Researchers said.
Looking at Shijiazhuang. "Now there are more people coming to see the house than before the Spring Festival." Wu Bo, a high-end real estate sales agent in Shijiazhuang, told reporters that since March, the number of house buyers has gradually increased, and he has repeatedly encountered house buyers with improvement needs. "During the epidemic Everyone lives at home and has higher requirements for housing space, so they are thinking about changing houses. "
During the holidays, Wu Bo transformed into a "caster" and live broadcasted houses, each with 50,000 to 60,000 viewers. In special times, housing companies have come up with a way to view a house remotely: buyers can pay online to lock in the house if they like it online. Now that the epidemic has eased, home buyers are coming to see and sign off-line.
"As of now, the number of online subscriptions is close to 2,000, all of which are pure online subscriptions." Curie's new home e-commerce platform has cooperated with more than 200 real estate companies. COO e-commerce platform Zhang Chao said that more than 5,000 projects have been set up online Sales office. Now that the epidemic is easing, it is only necessary to begin to release demand, "run cash" for house viewing and signing contracts.
Leaked low-cost housing in the second-hand housing market
"The house you are looking for has been sold!" Ten days ago, Mr. Chen, who was planning to buy a second-hand house in Beijing, pinpointed a low-priced house online, but he did not expect that the epidemic situation had just improved and he was ready to see the house. , But waited for a notice from the agency that the property has been sold.
The reporter visited a number of intermediaries in the city and was informed that although the transaction volume of the second-hand housing market in Beijing has not returned to the usual level, the transaction speed of some housing prices that have been reduced during the epidemic period is accelerating.
Why are these prices dropping? Last weekend, the chain home sold a set of price-reducing homes in a store in the North Fifth Ring Road, with a period of only ten days. The broker in charge explained to the reporter that the transaction was faster because the seller "sell one buy one", and there would be room for negotiation on the price. "The buyer observed this neighborhood for a long time, and once he found that the price was lower than usual, he took a decisive shot," he said.
In the past 4 weeks, the transaction volume of the second-hand housing market in many places has continued to increase. From March 16 to 22, the transaction volume of the second-hand housing market in Lianjia 18 City continued to increase by 27.5% month-on-month, increasing for seven consecutive weeks. Among them, Guangzhou, Qingdao, and Xi'an have exceeded the average weekly volume in March last year. The trading volume of Shanghai and Chengdu last week was close to the level of "Little Spring" in March last year, and the recovery levels reached 99.8% and 96.4%, respectively. Correspondingly, the number of new customers and listings in the second-hand housing market increased for seven consecutive weeks, with 14 cities last week adding more customers than the weekly average of December last year.
Resumption of work accelerates recovery from south to north
Looking across the country, the recovery path of the property market is from south to north, and cities in the south are recovering rapidly. 70% of the "Top 15 Cities in Market Recovery Power" in the "Real Estate Market Recovery Power Index Cities Ranking" are cities in the south, and "top5" are all cities in the south.
From the perspective of the urban circle, the recovery potential and speed of the northern urban circle is also slower than that of the south, basically showing the "Yangtze River Delta> Pearl River Delta> Second-tier cities> Circum-Beijing" situation. Data show that the surrounding Beijing is in a frozen state for a long time. Taking Yanjiao as an example, the current transaction volume is only about 10% before the Spring Festival. The top three of the list all belong to the Yangtze River Delta city circle, and the market recovery index of Suzhou, Nanjing and Hangzhou exceeds 0.7.
"The situation of domestic epidemic prevention and control is stable, and the negative impact of the epidemic is weakening. The process of resumption and production in China is also accelerating, and the negative impact of the epidemic on the trading market is gradually weakening." According to the analysis of the Shell Research Institute, the market generally expects LPR to still have downside Some customers wait and see will also seize the window period of falling interest rates to accelerate their entry into the market.
"This is a positive signal that the epidemic situation is different from the economic crisis. Rarely will there be such a demand for house purchases in an economic crisis." Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of the E-House Research Institute, said that the current demand is more just for admission and improvement. The market will still stabilize.