Chinanews Client Beijing, March 25 (Reporter Li Jinlei) Liu Qiao, Dean of the Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, recently suggested that a 1,000 yuan consumer coupon be issued to specific groups to subsidize low-income employment groups and promote domestic demand replenishment.
Recommend issuing consumer vouchers to specific groups
Liu Qiao recently released the "Thoughts and Recommendations of China's Economic Policy after the Epidemic", which recommended subsidizing low-income groups to stimulate consumption potential.
In Liu Qiao's opinion, considering that consumption has become an important driving force for China's economic growth, post-epidemic policies should particularly focus on hedging the impact of the epidemic on residents' consumption capacity and consumer confidence. Successive months of epidemic prevention and control have greatly reduced the normal consumption demand of residents.
"Although the consumption of residents is relatively flexible, in view of the large area affected by the epidemic and the delay in resuming work, the disposable income of residents may be greatly reduced. It is expected that the rebound in consumption after the epidemic may be less than expected." The most direct way to stimulate consumption potential is to subsidize low-income groups through tax cuts and subsidies.
Liu Qiao suggested that a policy of consumer vouchers could be considered to subsidize low-income employment groups and promote domestic demand replenishment.
On March 22, citizens shopped at Zhongbai Warehouse Nanhu Shopping Plaza in Hongshan District, Wuhan. Photo by Zhang Chang from China News Agency
The recommended amount of consumption vouchers is 1,000 yuan
In response to the subsidy policy for consumer vouchers, Liu Qiao suggested that consumer vouchers of 1,000 yuan should be issued in the form of cash subsidies to all employed people in the country. Consumer vouchers should be issued to all employees in Hubei Province.
Liu Qiao believes that consumer vouchers cannot be issued to the entire population and need to be targeted at specific groups. The population of the country is 1.4 billion people in 2019. If the consumption voucher is issued based on 1,000 yuan, it is estimated that it will need up to 1.4 trillion yuan, which will greatly increase the financial burden.
Liu Qiao said that the consumer voucher policy can convey the people's confidence in fighting the epidemic, issue consumer vouchers to the low-income groups affected by the epidemic, and provide subsidies to compensate for the decline in income caused by the epidemic and protect their basic lives. Secondly, subsidies directly stimulate consumption and form consumption subsidies, which can achieve a rebound in consumption in total.
Liu Qiao said that consumer coupon policies should consider tilting to key areas (such as Hubei and other regions with severe epidemics). Hubei Province is the most severely affected area. To date, preventing and controlling epidemics is still the most important job in Hubei Province. The low rate of resumption of work and resumption of enterprises has seriously affected the income level of local residents. Consumption vouchers are issued to all employees in the province.
Data Map: Residents wear masks to go shopping. Photo by Zhang Lang of China News Agency
The estimated issuance of consumer coupons exceeds 260 billion yuan
How much does a voucher cost?
Liu Qiao pointed out that data from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Affairs revealed that the number of employed people in China had reached 7.7471 million in December 2019, and the labor participation rate was 7.7471 / 14 = 55.33%. If the employment population with a monthly income of less than 3,000 yuan is regarded as a low-income group, this group accounts for 31%.
Therefore, it is estimated that the number of low-income employed people outside Hubei is about (14-0.5917) * 55.33% * 31% = 222.99 million people, and the number of employed people in Hubei Province is about 3.378 million people.
Therefore, the amount of subsidies for consumer vouchers is: Subsidies for low-income employees except Hubei + Subsidies for employees in Hubei Province = 229,999,800 * 1,000 yuan + 3,327,800 * 1,000 yuan = 262.731 billion yuan.
Extension: China has begun issuing consumer coupons
The reporter noticed that recently, Nanjing, Qingdao, Jinan, Ningbo and other places have announced the issuance of different forms of consumer vouchers.
Screenshot of Nanjing Electronic Consumer Voucher.
Among them, Nanjing issued a total of 318 million yuan of consumer coupons to citizens and disadvantaged groups. It is reported that in order to promote the full recovery of the service industry, the Nanjing Municipal Government issued electronic consumer vouchers in multiple batches of online lottery, and issued a total of 670,000 consumer coupons in three rounds, driving consumption of nearly 10 million yuan in 5 days.
Ha Zengyou, director of the Division of Employment Income Distribution and Consumption of the National Development and Reform Commission, said recently that he is paying close attention to the issue of consumer vouchers by the local government, and is actively tracking and analyzing to support local governments in launching a batch of targeted and integrated realities Pragmatic policy measures. Local policies should take into account the local financial affordability, so as to truly benefit market players and the broad masses of the people. (Finish)