■ Observer · "Resilience" series of comments on promoting recovery
To push the economy back on track, it is necessary to hedge external risks and release internal potential.
The sudden outbreak of new crown pneumonia will have a significant impact on economic activity in the first quarter of 2020. With the inflection point of the domestic epidemic already visible and the epidemic situation not reaching the peak abroad, how to make the economy recover as quickly as possible has become one of the most important issues at the moment.
General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out on the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on March 18 that it is necessary to improve the efficiency of resuming work and resuming production, focusing on addressing the needs of enterprises' labor, capital, and raw material supply, and providing targeted and accurate measures to open up the "blockage" 2. Make up the "breakpoint". At the same time, it is emphasized that we must strengthen the research and analysis of the international economic situation and formulate timely targeted policy measures.
First of all, we should see that although the outbreak interrupted the pace of stable economic growth in 2020, the potential of China's economic growth has not been shaken. The so-called potential mainly depends on the space for policy regulation and the ability to mobilize resources to deal with sudden risks. Neither of these aspects was really impacted by the epidemic.
Of course, the impact of the epidemic on the economy includes both internal and external shocks. External shocks are particularly severe for the two "stability" tests of foreign trade and finance.
At present, external risks are not just raging on unilateralism, but also epidemics. The epidemic-prone areas such as the United States and Europe are China's main trading partners. The government ’s inconsistent thinking on epidemic prevention and uneven control capabilities not only exposes China to new challenges of imported epidemics in the next stage, but also leads to further damage to the global supply chain. In fact, this trend is already evident. This will expose China's foreign trade companies to longer-term risks.
In addition, due to various factors, the level of panic in the financial markets in the United States, Europe, and the Middle East since March has reached the level of the 2008 international financial crisis. Overvaluation, a large number of redemption requirements and stylized transactions have forced various funds to flee.
Although strict financial supervision has partially blocked the transmission of this panic in the Chinese market, the zero-negative interest rate policy in the US and Europe has lasted too long, and the marginal effect has approached zero. How much can be achieved by restarting open market operations such as QE The expected effect remains to be seen. The "butterfly effect" of this uncertainty in financial markets is large. Under the dual pressure of the epidemic and the economy, some economies may move towards devaluation and competition in the future, which will also pose uncertain exchange rate risks for Chinese export companies.
Although we have a variety of tools such as flexible control mechanisms, resource mobilization capabilities, and established emerging strategic industries, we cannot rely on the consumption of existing resources, nor can we pin our hopes on the inevitable rise in consumption that will occur after the epidemic is over. . Revenge consumption is more statistically significant and difficult to sustain.
Therefore, as soon as the economy recovers, in addition to making good use of the existing resources, we must turn our attention to expanding the incremental resources. Fundamentally, the epidemic situation is increasing the cyclical risk of economic operation, which is still a cyclical factor among the "three-phase superposition" factors that restrict the "six stability". It is difficult to control the cyclical factors linked to external risks, but the internal factors that restrict the "six stability" can still be reduced, especially the institutional factors.
On the one hand, we must further rationalize the issue of fiscal distribution. Last year, large-scale tax and fee reductions were implemented, which reduced the cost of 2.3 trillion yuan for enterprises. In the face of the epidemic, the central government needs to bear more costs of reducing taxes and fees, promote the shift of consumption tax as soon as possible, and at the same time increase the profit allocation of social security by central enterprises, and moderately reduce local exemptions for epidemic prevention. New burdens such as reductions and reductions in economic activity. Reflected on the institutional factors, it is necessary to continuously optimize the financial relationship between the central and local governments.
At the micro level, we must further activate the vitality of the enterprise. Enterprises are the protagonists of economic recovery, and private economy plays an irreplaceable role. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, a series of measures have been introduced from the central to the local level, which have played a good role in suppressing the operating costs of enterprises, reducing labor conflicts, and stabilizing the expectations of employees. However, private enterprises are relatively weak in their ability to resist risks. Although local governments have stipulated that non-drawing loans, continuous loans, and not oppressing loans to private enterprises, private enterprises are often stuck in financing. Therefore, it is necessary to vigorously increase credit loans and medium and long-term loans specifically for private enterprises, extend the repayment period appropriately, and give private enterprises full confidence to deal with uncertainty. Reflected on the institutional factors, it is to improve their national treatment.
In fact, implementation of active fiscal policies, optimization of central-land relations, and support for private enterprises have been deployed before. These deployments cannot be interrupted by the epidemic, and the response will be more determined and more rapid. In this way, companies can maintain confidence and stabilize expectations.
In short, only with stable expectations can we have "six stability". And stable expectations not only need the stock resources to hedge external risks, but also need to show results as soon as possible in tapping internal potential and eliminating institutional obstacles. By maintaining both internal and external training, economic operations can be recovered as soon as possible and return to the track of stable growth.
□ Xu Lifan (column writer)