The client of China and Singapore Jingwei on March 16 (Zhang Yannan) was less than a week before the State Council's Standing Committee released the RRR cut signal. The People's Bank of China landed its second RRR cut this year (16th) and released long-term funds of 550 billion yuan.
"Follow" joint-stock banks
On March 13th, the People's Bank of China announced that it would implement a targeted reduction of inclusive finance on the 16th, and targeted reductions of 0.5 to 1 percentage point for banks that met the assessment criteria. The qualified joint-stock commercial banks will be further reduced by one percentage point to support the issuance of loans to the inclusive financial sector. A total of 550 billion yuan of long-term funds were released.
Dong Ximiao, a specially-appointed researcher of the National Finance and Development Lab, told the client of Sino-Singapore Jingwei that the RRR cut has the function of "three birds with one stone," releasing long-term liquidity, reducing the cost of bank liabilities, and transmitting a strong signal of stability expectations to the market .
Different from the previous one, this RRR cut specifically refers to joint-stock banks. Why do joint-stock banks receive "extra rewards"? Dong Ximiao believes that the 300 billion special re-loans and 500 billion re-loan rediscounts established after the Spring Festival did not cover joint-stock banks; coupled with the fact that joint-stock banks do not have large-scale banks with branches throughout the country, nor do they have the geographic, Popularity, debt pressure and cost are relatively greater.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said that joint-stock banks are the main force for inclusive financial services, and they play an irreplaceable role in serving specialty industries, regional enterprises, small and micro enterprises, and individual industrial and commercial businesses. Increase loan support for small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households.
Still good for the property market?
The central bank announced on the 13th that the targeted reduction of long-term funds will effectively increase the bank's stable source of funds to support the real economy. Bank transmission will help promote the reduction of real interest rates for small, micro, and private enterprises, and directly support the real economy.
Photographs of new warp and weft
Yan Yuejin, director of research at the Think Tank Center of the E-House Research Institute, told the clients of China and Singapore that the previous RRR cuts have actually had a positive impact on the real estate market, releasing liquidity while making commercial bank loans more sufficient, combined with the previous loan market quoted interest rate LPR) reform, the loan amount of funds and interest rates are in very good condition.
"The RRR cut will provide commercial banks with more funds and liquidity. Objectively, there is also the possibility of actively lowering interest rates in terms of loans, or in the near future, discounts and concessions in the purchase of houses will increase." Yan Yuejin said.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said that the cut was to reduce corporate financing costs. However, from a historical perspective, as long as the RRR cut, it is certainly good for real estate and can ease the pressure on capital. Zhang Dawei said that the economic vitality will rise to a certain extent after the RRR cut. For the first-tier and second-tier cities that are densely populated and have entered the adjustment period, capital will improve, and coupled with the huge demand population, it is expected to show a stop-fall performance.
What "cards" will the central bank follow?
As early as after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates sharply by 50 basis points late at night on the 3rd, the market is discussing whether the People's Bank of China will take action. However, the "Yangma" as usual performed calmly, and only "half a month" later offered "reduction" measures.
Photographs of new warp and weft
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source, believes that in the context of the current continuous slump in the external market and lack of market confidence, the central bank's RRR cut is undoubtedly "timely rain." Will interest rate cuts come after the cut? How to adjust LPR? What "cards" will the central bank follow?
On March 16, there will be a regular medium-term loan facility (MLF) operation. The chief economist of Founder Securities and the deputy director of the Institute of Economic Policy of Peking University said to the client of Sino-Singapore Jingwei that due to the impact of global financial markets, if domestic The stock market continues to fall, and the possibility of a 10 basis point reduction in MLF interest rates will increase. The one-year MLF may fall by 10 basis points and the five-year period by 5 basis points. In addition, there may be two full-scale reduction opportunities throughout the year.
On the 20th, the central bank will announce a new LPR. CITIC Securities believes that LPR has been linked to the MLF interest rate, and lowering the MLF interest rate to guide LPR is the smoothest path to reduce costs under the condition of interest rate liberalization. Considering the need for hedging the epidemic and the space for Sino-US spreads, a more appropriate time for interest rate cuts has arrived. It is expected that the MLF interest rate will be reduced by 5-10 basis points with a high probability to guide LPR to continue its downward trend.
Northeast Securities research report analysis, under the disturbance of the epidemic, from the internal and external environment, the current economic stability and exchange rate requirements are greater, the central bank is expected to reduce interest rates slightly in March, MLF and one-year LPR interest rates are expected to be reduced by 5-10 basis points. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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