Witness history! Eleven countries in the world broke out on the same day. Can US stocks hold A shares twice a week?
Zhongxin Jingwei Client, March 13th, originally thought it was "Black Monday", but it was not expected to be "Black Week"! Affected by the spread of the global new crown pneumonia epidemic and the oil price war, global stock markets have plummeted, and the "melting tide" of the stock market has hit.
Photo by Xin Jingwei, Dong Wenbo
Global financial markets have once again begun a plunge. Stock markets in 11 countries including the United States, Brazil, Canada, Thailand, the Philippines, Pakistan, South Korea, Indonesia, Mexico, Colombia, and Sri Lanka triggered a "fuse" on the same day. Among them, the United States is the second time this week. Father Buffett has lived in his 80s before seeing 3 fuses, and the global market has experienced 2 times a week.
On the morning of the 12th, Beijing time, although U.S. President Trump delivered a televised speech, he announced a number of measures including travel bans in Europe, emergency assistance for businesses and individuals, and stressed that "this is not a financial crisis" US stocks don't seem to buy it. US stocks opened sharply on Thursday. The transaction triggered a second blowout in less than 5 minutes. After the resumption of trading, the stock index continued to fall, and the Dow fell more than 2,000 points. All three major stock indexes have now fallen into a bear market.
CNN said it is difficult to predict how long the new bear market will last. The report counts a bear market in the history of US stocks, with an average duration of 21 months. The longest bear market appeared in March 1937 and lasted 62 months. The round of bull markets that just ended began in 2009 and has lasted 11 years. It is the longest bull market in American history.
Qian Dean, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source, told the client of Sino-Singapore Jingwei that all stock markets tend to plummet after peaking, especially now that more than 80% of quantitative transactions in U.S. stocks are programmatic. Once the market peaks, The plunge, these stylized transactions will continue to kill, resulting in cliff-like declines. The United States has gained for many years, and has lost money in the last half month, causing panic among global investors.
"The decline in U.S. stocks cannot be attributed to the spread of the epidemic overseas. Of course, the spread of the epidemic has increased the risk of the economies of many countries in the world falling into recession." Yang Delong said: "Germany is the locomotive of the European economy. Last two consecutive quarters Negative growth, if it is negative for three quarters, it is a recession. Brexit also increases the possibility of the European economy falling into recession. "
In the case of European and American stock market shocks, A shares have shown resilience. Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of New Times Securities, believes that China's economy is relatively better than that of overseas economies, and RMB assets have certain hedging characteristics. Domestic capital markets, including A shares, will perform better than overseas markets. However, we must also be aware that if the overseas economy drops sharply, it may cause further damage to China's industrial chain and exports, which will have an impact on the Chinese economy and A shares.
Yang Delong said that the Chinese and American stock markets showed completely different trends, mainly due to the different positions of the two markets. US stocks were at the top of the ten-year bull market expansion cycle, while A shares were at the bottom of the ten-year cycle.
The Huaxin Securities Research Report also stated that with the start of resumption of work and resumption of production, China will lead the world in economic recovery. The safe haven function of the A-share market will also be reflected in the medium and long-term allocation. March is going to be a back-and-forth market. Due to the high uncertainty of the external market, there may be a one-day panic market, but it is not sustainable, but an opportunity for layout. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
(The opinions in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.)