Original title: 80% of service companies suffered losses in the epidemic, and most companies are optimistic about the second quarter

Most companies believe that as long as they actively take action and the government provides accurate assistance, it is possible to achieve the goals of the annual business plan.

The service industry, which occupies half of China's economy, was severely impacted by the new crown pneumonia epidemic.

The "Analysis Report on the Impact of China's Top 500 Enterprises in the Service Industry" recently released by the China Enterprise Confederation (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") shows that the new crown pneumonia epidemic has significantly adversely affected the production and operation of enterprises in the first quarter of this year, and the company's operating income has been significantly Decreased, operating costs increased, and profitability declined, but most companies are relatively optimistic about the production and operation situation in the second quarter.

Coordinating the prevention and control of the epidemic and the "six stability" of the economy need to accelerate the promotion of stable growth of the service industry. Most companies believe that as long as they actively take action, coupled with the government's precise assistance, early implementation of measures such as tax and fee reductions, reduction of corporate financing costs, and expansion of the effective demand in the domestic market, it is possible to achieve a full-year business plan. aims.

Enterprises affected by the epidemic have significant industry differences

According to the report, the impact of the outbreak on consumer services such as retail, catering, tourism, culture and entertainment is obvious, and these industries accounted for a large proportion of the year's revenue. Productive service industries such as logistics and transportation, warehousing, and business services are also quickly affected.

The survey results show that the epidemic has caused losses to China's top 500 service industries. 50.77% of the enterprises suffered a large loss, another 28.85% of the enterprises suffered less losses, and 15% of the companies reported that they have not yet fully evaluated the losses, and only 0.77% of the companies said they did not suffer losses.

From the perspective of industry, the impact of enterprises on epidemic situation is quite different. The enterprises that suffered a lot of losses accounted for the highest proportion in the transportation industry, with 75%, followed by retail and tourism, catering and cultural and entertainment industries, with 73.53% and 73.33% respectively; the industries that were relatively less affected by the epidemic were The financial industry, followed by Internet information services and business services, accounted for 13.79%, 33.33%, and 35.29% of the companies that suffered great damage.

In terms of revenue and profits, 58.46% of the companies reported that their operating income would decrease significantly in the first quarter, which means that more than half of the companies ’operating income would decline sharply. Another 32.31% of the companies reported that their operating income would decrease in the first quarter, and the total was 90.77%.

52.31% of the enterprises said that the profit in the first quarter will be significantly reduced, and 35.77% of the enterprises will be reduced. The sum of the two results in 88.08% of enterprises with varying degrees of profit. Another 7.31% of companies' first quarter earnings will be basically the same as in previous years, and only 4.61% of companies are expected to increase their first quarter earnings.

Looking forward to the second quarter, more than half of the companies expect the business situation in the second quarter to improve, and 36.54% of the companies are expected to be similar to the first quarter. The business service industry is the most optimistic. Among them, 70.59% of the companies believe that the business situation will improve in the second quarter; the tourism, catering and cultural and entertainment industries, which are most affected by the epidemic, are relatively pessimistic, and only 33.33% of the companies believe that the business situation will occur in the second quarter. Get better.

Accelerate the restoration of stable growth in the service industry

In 2019, the proportion of service industry in GDP reached 53.9%, and the contribution rate of consumer expenditure to GDP growth was 57.8%. The service industry has played a very important role in promoting China's economic development.

Under epidemic prevention and control, more stringent quarantine measures have been adopted in various places, which has a negligible impact on the normal operation of service companies from both the supply and demand sides. Specifically, the impacts include operating cost pressures, funding pressures, insufficient business needs, heavy tax burdens, poor logistics channels, difficulty in judging future developments, reduced business negotiation and exchange activities, shortage of epidemic prevention materials, and difficulty in recruiting workers.

Effectively alleviating the negative impact of the epidemic on the service industry is an urgent need to maintain the sustainable and healthy development of our society and economy. This requires the joint efforts of enterprises to actively act and the government's precise assistance.

In this questionnaire, 11 enterprises are asked to help the government. The survey results show that enterprises hope that the government's assistance measures are relatively concentrated. More than 80% of the companies hope that the government will continue to increase tax and fee reduction, more than 70% of the companies hope to reduce corporate financing costs, and 50% of the companies hope to expand domestic effectiveness. demand.

In terms of self-rescue of enterprises, the survey questionnaire set 12 measures that enterprises can take to respond to the epidemic. More than 80% of enterprises have chosen "strive for policy and financial support", "improved service and management levels" and "innovative service models", while more than 40% of enterprises have chosen "intensify publicity and marketing efforts" and "speed up Digital transformation and transformation to online. " It is worth mentioning that only 3.46% of companies choose to lay off staff and reduce wages. This is not only confidence in the continued growth of the future, but also highlights the role of large service companies in their difficulties.

The report believes that solving problems from the source and expanding the effective demand of the market is obviously a common demand of enterprises. In the first quarter, due to the impact of the epidemic, international trade and international business activities decreased significantly. At present, there is greater uncertainty in the spread of the epidemic worldwide. Therefore, in the next period, companies and governments will work together to actively expand the effective demand for domestic markets Important direction.

Guo Xiaobei, a researcher at the Research Institute of China Minsheng Bank, told First Financial that the prevention and control of China ’s new crown pneumonia epidemic has recently entered a new stage of strict prevention of new and digested stocks; at the same time, the economic impact of promoting resumption of work and production and hedging the pre-epidemic situation has quickly become the government The top priority of the work is that the service industry, as the engine of China's economic growth, has been greatly affected in this epidemic. Whether it can boost it will become the determinant of whether the Chinese economy can enter a stable track in the short term. The boost of consumption will expand effective demand and promote the recovery of the production side, thereby ensuring and stabilizing employment and increasing residents' income, thereby providing the basis for the next round of consumption.

The meeting of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee on March 4 emphasized the need to combine the resumption of work and production with the expansion of domestic demand, to release suppressed and frozen consumption, and to promote new-type consumption and upgrade consumption in the prevention and control of epidemics. Cultivate and grow up to make up for the consumption of physical goods and services.

Liu Zhe, deputy director of the Weber New Economics Research Institute, told First Financial that from the supply side, it is necessary to resume normal production and operation activities as soon as possible and unblock the supply channels for consumer products and services. For example, optimizing the chain and license application process and cycle, and exploring and implementing the "one-photo-multiple-address" registration policy. For another example, the transportation industry, as a pivotal link in commercial trade, plays an important role in all aspects of raw material purchase, production, finished product transportation, and consumption, and is the basis for the resumption of production and production in the manufacturing industry. It is necessary to take and implement relevant policies and measures as soon as possible, to facilitate the review and resumption of production and transportation in the transportation industry, to facilitate the review and approval process, to ease the pressure on transportation costs, storage costs, insurance and other capital costs, and to lift the logistics supply constraints of enterprises to resume production and resume production. From the demand side, it is necessary to accelerate the implementation of trade-in of green smart goods, increase subsidies for new energy vehicles, etc., to improve consumers' sense of gain, and stimulate the enthusiasm and potential of consumption.

It is worth noting that the short-term impact of the epidemic is difficult to change the general trend of accelerated development and innovative development of the service industry. Wang Wei, a researcher at the Research Institute for Market Economy of the Development Research Center of the State Council, wrote an analysis of the short-term development of the service industry since the outbreak. However, in the prevention and control of the epidemic, some new service demands and supplies emerged at the historic moment, which played an important role in effectively fighting the epidemic, and largely reflected the future market demand and the direction of technological innovation.

For example, more and more consumers are switching to online channels to “do not leave home” for daily consumption. Not only have mature service industries such as online retail, games, and entertainment continued to grow rapidly, but also online premieres of movies and online classrooms And other emerging service formats have also achieved explosive growth. At the same time, the demand for services in production areas such as online marketing, supply chain management, and cloud manufacturing has also accelerated the pace of onlineization.

Author: sweet wish