(Fighting New Coronary Pneumonia) How is the global response to the "blockade paradox"?

China News Agency, Beijing, March 12 (Reporter Wang Enbo) The measures of personnel movement and traffic control such as "closing the city" can help prevent the spread of the virus, but this will inevitably cause damage to the economy. With the WHO's announcement that the new crown pneumonia epidemic is "characteristically referred to as a pandemic," many policymakers around the world may face this "Lockdown Paradox."

The latest WHO statistics show that 37,371 cases of new coronary pneumonia have been diagnosed outside China. The epidemic has spread rapidly, making more countries aware of the seriousness of the problem.

In Europe, Italy, the worst affected country, entered the state of "closing the city" from the 10th. On the 11th, it announced the closure of all shops except food stores and drug stores. In the United States, more than 20 states have declared a state of emergency to mobilize more emergency resources to fight the epidemic. From the 13th local time, the United States will also suspend all European countries except the United Kingdom to travel to the United States for a period of 30 days.

The panic of the recent global epidemic escalation has also passed to financial markets. On the 9th, global financial markets experienced a "Black Monday." Among them, U.S. stocks were "blood-washed" and triggered a fusing mechanism. The Dow Jones index plummeted more than 2,000 points, the largest single-day point decline in the history of U.S. stocks. In the following days, the global market continued to fluctuate dramatically.

"General concerns (of the market) stem from the blockade measures," said Gregory Daco, chief economist at the Oxford Economics Institute in the United States. The main economic risk of the epidemic stems from authorities' actions to curb the epidemic. Take the United States as an example. If the government decides to close schools, strictly restrict travel and all unnecessary activities, its longest economic expansion cycle in history may end.

Faced with the "blockade paradox", all parties have their own considerations. However, as the first country to "hard-core" and "epidemic", China's experience is undoubtedly of reference value.

On January 23, with the development of the epidemic, Wuhan announced the closure of the city. From that day, Hubei and even China have adopted unprecedented prevention and control measures, including large-scale quarantine and quarantine, and strict personnel movement control. The economic impact caused by this has been initially reflected in the recently released February PMI, export and other economic data.

But the current epidemic, China is not just counting "economic accounts." The virus directly threatens the safety and health of the people. When it is time to take a shot, you must take a shot, otherwise you will continue to suffer from it.

A recent research article published by the Chinese Academy of Engineering academician Zhong Nanshan's team shows that if the implementation of the control measures is delayed for 5 days, the scale of the outbreak in the mainland of China is expected to triple; if the control of Wuhan is reduced, Hubei may appear second in mid-March. The epidemic peaked and lasted until late April.

The decisive implementation of measures such as "blocking the city" does not mean that China does not count as an "economic account." With the recent positive changes in the epidemic prevention and control situation, governments at all levels have gone hand in hand on the two fronts of epidemic prevention and economic development. The rate of resumption of work in non-epidemic prevention and control areas has rebounded sharply, and production and operations in various industries have resumed orderly.

According to the US "Balun Weekly" report, the international research institution Gavekal observed that China's transportation, real estate sales and coal use indicators have rebounded recently. The report said investors should be assured that this is a sign that the world's second-largest economy has been "relaunched."

China's anti-epidemic practice proves that as long as appropriate measures are taken, the epidemic of new crown pneumonia can be contained and its economic impact can be controlled within a certain range. The head of the WHO expert group for a study tour to China also mentioned in an interview with the US media recently that China's model of epidemic resistance can be replicated.

Xing Ziqiang, chief economist at Morgan Stanley China, said that the world is currently facing a public health emergency response, and taking isolation measures to weaken the infection is the first prescription.

According to Xing Ziqiang's global medical team modeling and analysis, if overseas countries adopt the "Chinese model" to contain the virus, including timely isolation, reducing transmission rates, and ensuring that the local medical system is not overloaded, it is expected to begin in mid-March March, South Korea The epidemic situation in Italy, Italy and other countries may have peaked, and the United States and other Western European countries may see turning points in April. Otherwise, the epidemic will spread or become more persistent and difficult to contain in the short term.

Although the "blockade paradox" still worries the market, as the global epidemic continues to escalate, there may not be much time left for all parties to "settle accounts".

WHO Director-General Tan Desai bluntly stated on the 11th that the number of confirmed cases, deaths, and the number of affected countries and regions in the world is expected to increase in the next few weeks. He called on all countries to take urgent and positive action. "We have sounded the alarm bell clearly and clearly." (End)