China Net Finance March 10 (Reporter Li Chunhui) Entering 2020, the foreign trade import and export data release has changed: The General Administration of Customs did not release the import and export data for January and February separately, but released them for the first time. Analytical agencies said that this move would help eliminate the impact of the dislocation factors on the growth of imports and exports during the Spring Festival.

According to customs statistics, in the first two months of this year, China's total value of imports and exports of goods trade was 4.12 trillion yuan, a decrease of 9.6% over the same period last year (the same below). Among them, exports were 2.04 trillion yuan, down 15.9%; imports were 2.08 trillion yuan, down 2.4%.

From the above data, it can be seen that although exports have fallen sharply in the first two months, imports have only declined slightly, and the impact of the epidemic on imports is not obvious, indicating that China's economy and trade have strong resilience and strong domestic demand. Faced with the possible drag on the global economy and external demand caused by the recent rapid spread of overseas epidemics, analysts suggest that the domestic economy within the next stage of domestic demand will supplement external demand.

In the first two months of this year, the epidemic has less impact on imports and there are still many bright spots in foreign trade.

The General Administration of Customs said that the decline in foreign trade imports and exports was mainly affected by factors such as the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the extension of the Spring Festival holiday. Among them, the imports have only declined slightly in the first two months, and the impact of the epidemic on imports has not been obvious, mainly due to the strong resilience and inertia of China's economic and trade, the increase in the shipment period of commodities and the pace of enterprise imports.

Since the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic at the beginning of the year, due to the need for epidemic prevention, the Spring Festival holiday has been extended, and the resumption of work has been delayed, which has led to a slowdown in export order production. Bank of Communications Financial Research Center Tang Jianwei and Liu Xuezhi said that the significant decline in exports in the first two months of this year was "expected"; the reason for the smaller decline in imports was due to the rising domestic demand for important medical supplies such as masks, medicines, and equipment To some extent, it has driven import growth.

Although the overall import and export fell in the first two months, it still showed many positive factors. Even under the influence of the "black swan" epidemic, the pace of adjustment and optimization of foreign trade structure has not stopped.

First, imports and exports to ASEAN and countries along the “Belt and Road” have continued to grow. In the first two months, China ’s imports and exports to the traditional trading partners of the European Union, the United States, and Japan declined, and imports and exports to ASEAN reached 594.11 billion yuan, an increase of 2%. ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner. During the same period, China ’s total imports and exports with the countries along the “Belt and Road” were 1.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, 11.4 percentage points higher than the growth rate of China ’s foreign trade, accounting for 31.7%, and the proportion exceeded 30% for the first time.

Second, private enterprises are relatively more dynamic in foreign trade import and export. Customs statistics show that in the first two months, the import and export of private enterprises reached 1.7 trillion yuan (a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%), accounting for 41.9% of the total value of imports and exports, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year. The increase in the proportion of private enterprises' import and export reflects the continuous optimization of the domestic business environment.

Third, imports of commodities and key consumer goods have grown rapidly. Customs statistics show that in the first two months, imports of commodities such as iron ore, crude oil, coal, and natural gas increased by 1.5%, 5.2%, 33.1%, and 2.8%, respectively. During the same period, the import value of agricultural products increased by 6.8%, of which soybean imports increased by 14.2%, and pork imports increased by 1.6 times.

In addition, according to customs data monitoring, in February the value of foreign trade imports and exports increased sequentially, and the number of declarations submitted by enterprises increased gradually. According to the survey conducted by the General Administration of Customs on 2552 sample foreign trade enterprises, 80.6% of them have resumed work. It can be seen that the supply capacity of export enterprises is rapidly recovering.

Experts suggest that domestic demand and external demand are expected to significantly increase imports after March

The recent spread of overseas epidemics has accelerated the number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in Italy and South Korea. Due to the different medical conditions and attitudes and methods of responding to the epidemic in various countries, the uncertainty of overseas epidemics has increased significantly, and global economic growth has been overshadowed. The IMF has recently lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2020 by 0.1 percentage point to 3.2%.

The New Age Securities macro research team said that the impact of the epidemic on China's exports may fall from supply shocks to external demand, and it is recommended that domestic demand be used to supplement external demand, with infrastructure investment being the first choice. In the new era, we believe that China currently needs both a certain rate of economic growth and stable employment, and also needs to ensure the quality of economic growth to achieve economic transformation. Infrastructure investment meets these two goals, that is, the old infrastructure with a relatively high growth rate and a relatively low share. The new infrastructure promotes high-quality economic growth.

Bank of Communications Financial Research Center Tang Jianwei and Liu Xuezhi said that after the epidemic was supported by reconstruction demand, imports are expected to pick up significantly after March. Chinese companies are stepping up and restarting production. After the domestic epidemic situation has been effectively controlled, in order to grab back the first two months, the post-epidemic reconstruction effort is certainly not small. It is expected that domestic post-epidemic reconstruction demand will form a good support for imports. .

In addition, the General Administration of Customs actively implements the decision-making and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council to coordinate the advancement of epidemic prevention and control and promote the stabilization of foreign trade, and has introduced zero-delay customs clearance of epidemic prevention and control materials, responding to the impact of the epidemic to promote stable growth in foreign trade, and support the China-Europe train schedule and integration. A number of policies and measures for the development of the bonded area have fully supported the resumption of production and production of foreign trade enterprises and the steady growth of foreign trade. With the positive results of epidemic prevention and control, and the gradual implementation of various policies and measures, market confidence is steadily increasing. It should be said that the impact of the epidemic on import and export is temporary and periodical, and the long-term positive trend of foreign trade development has not changed.