(Combating new crown pneumonia) China's economic war "epidemic" record: experts: stimulating demand can not solve the current economic problems in China
China News Agency, Beijing, March 3rd: Experts: Stimulating demand cannot solve current economic problems in China
China News Agency reporter Li Xiaoyu
Under the epidemic situation, China's economic data in the first quarter is not optimistic.
Liu Shangxi, member of the Economic Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and president of the Chinese Academy of Financial Sciences, said in an exclusive interview with a reporter from China News Agency on the 3rd that it is ineffective to stimulate demand by solving current economic problems. At present, stabilizing the economy requires risk-oriented policy adjustments to promote the synergy of various policies.
Stimulating demand does not solve current economic problems
Liu Shangxi said that the main problem of China's current economy is not at the demand side, but at the supply side. The supply of factors, especially the resumption of labor, has been affected by the epidemic. The flow of people and logistics has not been completely opened. The industrial chain and supply chain cannot run smoothly. The resumption of production and production of enterprises lack the necessary conditions. "In this case, stimulating demand to solve problems such as insufficient labor supply, poor logistics, and difficulty in resuming production and resuming production in the enterprise is ineffective.
In his opinion, the most important thing right now is how to more accurately and scientifically resolve the obstacles in the process of resuming production and resume production, realize the full flow of people and logistics under epidemic conditions, and ensure that enterprises resume work and resume production as soon as possible.
Liu Shangxi believes that to stabilize the economy, the key is to make good use of the basic method of "risk-oriented", to dynamically analyze and accurately assess the risk status, and then dynamically adjust the epidemic prevention and control measures to make it appropriate and effective. The state of risk and the means to cope with the risk are mutually matched and coordinated. In addition, the current methods for epidemic prevention and control also need to be continuously summarized, communicated with each other, and constantly updated to achieve accurate responses.
Adjusting expenditure structure is a top priority
According to official data, since the outbreak of the epidemic, financial investment in epidemic prevention has exceeded 100 billion yuan. At the same time, affected by the epidemic, service industries such as catering and tourism have sharply cooled, industrial production has also been affected, and fiscal revenue has been under pressure.
Under the situation that the fiscal revenue and expenditure gap is not optimistic, Liu Shangxi bluntly stated that a proper increase in China's deficit this year is inevitable, but how much the deficit rate will increase depends on two factors, one is how much the fiscal revenue and expenditure gap will be, and the other is adjustment How strong the spending structure can be. If the adjustment of the expenditure structure is large enough to save more funds, the increase in the deficit rate can be smaller.
"I don't support asking for an increase in the deficit rate at all times," he said. Adjusting the structure of expenditures is the more important and critical issue. Although progress has been made in this area in recent years, the allocation of funds is still not reasonable, the funds are tight and wasteful, and co-exist, and the efficiency of capital use still needs to be improved. The epidemic situation and tax and fee reduction will take too long, in fact, it provides an opportunity to adjust the structure of government expenditure. In the future, the risk status of different places, industries, and links should be evaluated, and the priority of expenditure should be prioritized based on the risk, and the higher risk level should be guaranteed first.
Reduction of taxes and fees is not a tax rate
In order to alleviate corporate funding constraints, China has recently introduced a number of policies, including the reduction and exemption of social security fees and the reduction of VAT rates on small-scale taxpayers.
Liu Shangxi believes that considering that VAT is an interlocking chain, reducing tax through VAT is not a "reduction in spirit". The more beneficial way for enterprises should be “immediate collection and refund” of VAT, which is returned to the enterprise in time after tax collection, so that the enterprise can effectively reduce the burden without affecting the deduction of downstream enterprises, which is more effective than reducing the tax rate . However, this approach will significantly increase the workload of tax management and requires big data support.
He said that to better solve the problem of corporate capital chain, a "policy combination" approach should be used. The policy mix is not just the coordination and coordination of departmental behaviors, but the organic combination of multiple policies into one big policy, not just fiscal and monetary policies, but also public policies such as employment policies, industrial policies, social security, etc. Only when policies form a combination of different types and levels of policies can a true synergy be formed. (Finish)