Moderator Yu Nan: The evolution of the new crown pneumonia epidemic will inevitably have an impact on China's economic and social development, which not only inhibits the development of tourism and transportation industries, but also stimulates agricultural product consumption in the short term. Under the unified deployment of the Party Central Committee, all relevant departments are adjusting the policies on credit, bonds, foreign trade, infrastructure and other policies to effectively resolve the impact of the epidemic and stabilize the economy. The upcoming economic data for February will focus on the impact of the epidemic. This report specially invites experts to analyze the upcoming macroeconomic data.
Next week, the National Bureau of Statistics will release February consumer price index (CPI) and industrial producer ex-factory price index (PPI) data. Currently, five institutions have made predictions on the data. According to the "Securities Daily" reporter statistics, the agency forecasts In February, the minimum year-on-year growth rate of CPI was 4.0%, the maximum value was 5.4%, and the average growth rate was estimated to be 5.0%. The minimum year-on-year growth rate of PPI was -0.2%, and the maximum value was 0.1%, and the average growth rate was predicted to be -0.08%.
Zhang Jun, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities, said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter yesterday that the CPI is expected to be at 4.9% in February and the PPI may be at -0.2%. The judgment is mainly based on the following A few points: The epidemic exacerbates the psychology of hoarding and consumption by residents, food prices have risen, vegetable prices and pork prices have increased from the previous month; however, catering, transportation, and tourism are subject to restrictions by local traffic regulations, and non-food items are weaker. At the same time, taking into account the impact of the misplacement of the Spring Festival, the CPI in February may be slightly lower than in January, but the decline is limited by the support of food prices. In addition, the probability of PPI affected by the epidemic in February returned to negative growth.
Among the food prices in January, the CPI of fresh vegetables, pork, and fresh fruit rose 15.3%, 8.5%, and 5.5% from the previous month; the average pork price of the Ministry of Agriculture in February basically fluctuated slightly around 49 yuan / kg-50 yuan / kg, although The impact of the low base last year has increased year-on-year growth, but the state has continued to mobilize resources to calm market price fluctuations (such as putting the central reserve frozen pork on the market), and the trend of rising pig prices after the Spring Festival has been controlled to some extent.
Li Chao, chief macro researcher of Huatai Securities, told the Securities Daily reporter that an outbreak occurred at the beginning of this year, and the traffic control measures adopted by various places for this have made export of agricultural and livestock products restricted in some areas during the Spring Festival. At the same time, the epidemic has led to an increase in demand for food hoarding by residents, and some agricultural products are expected to rise in price. However, because the state highly emphasizes maintaining the normal price order during the epidemic and cracking down on speculative price increases, as transportation and logistics gradually return to normal, the normal and adequate supply of daily supplies of residents is expected to be guaranteed. Gradually subsided.
Li Chao believes that in the next two or three months, there is a possibility that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI will continue to exceed 5%. At present, we still maintain a neutral forecast that the CPI hub may be around 3.5% in 2020. We still believe that the CPI high this year may be at the beginning of the year, and then it will gradually decline. CPI is expected to increase by 0.9% month-on-month and 5.3% year-on-year in February.
Political commissar Lu, the chief economist at Industrial Bank, told the Securities Daily that from the perspective of consumer products, the poor transportation of agricultural products kept the prices of vegetables and pork at a higher month-on-month increase in February, while the prices of refined oil products declined. In general, although the CPI in February is expected to be lower than that in January, it may still be at a high level of about 5.0%. From the perspective of industrial products, the slow resumption of work has led to the accumulation of steel stocks, while the decline in transportation has affected the demand for crude oil, resulting in a drop in steel prices and oil prices. Therefore, the PPI in February may fall to -0.2% year-on-year.
Looking forward to the trend of monetary policy in the later period, Li Chao said that counter-cyclical regulation is the main tone of the current monetary policy. Monetary policy will remain stable and slightly loose. The combination of wide currency and wide credit will be adopted. A number of tools, such as rediscounting and heavy PSL, have expanded credit and social financing growth. (Securities Daily)
Our reporter Su Shiyu