(Combating New Crown Pneumonia) (Economic Observation) Under the epidemic, a new round of "bear market" begins in global stock markets?
China News Agency, Beijing, February 28 (Reporter Chen Kangliang) With the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic worldwide, panic sentiment in the capital market has risen, and the US stock market has continued to decline in recent days. The trend is similar to that of the dot-com crash in early 2000.
Overnight the U.S. stock market suffered a severe setback. The Dow Jones Index fell 4.42%, with a cumulative decline of more than 11% this week; the S & P 500 Index also fell 4.42%, falling below the 3,000-point mark; the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 4.61%.
Strategists at two Wall Street investment banks, Goldman Sachs and Citi, believe that the biggest decline in US stocks in two years has just begun. Among them, Goldman Sachs strategists Christian Mueller-Glissmann and Alessio Rizzi said that the average correction period of the S & P 500 index is four months, but due to the uncertainty of public health events and the constraints faced by Fed policy makers, this callback may be For a longer period of time, the decline that began last Thursday may not reach the bottom until at least July. Citigroup strategists headed by Jeremy Hale are also cautious, citing public health incidents and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy are uncertain.
Northeast Securities analyst Shen Zhengyang said that the overnight U.S. stock market plunged 4%, and technically it has formed a scene similar to when the Nasdaq bubble burst in 2000. The US stock market has been rising for more than 10 years. The recent decline is based on the resonance of historically high valuation levels and downward pressure on performance. The spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic has strengthened the downward pressure. As the leader of global stock markets, the decline of US stocks will have a greater impact on global capital markets.
In fact, the European market also fell sharply on Thursday. The British FTSE 100 index fell 3.49%, the French CAC40 index fell 3.32%, and the German DAX index fell 3.19%.
And Asian stock markets were not spared the next day. As of 12:00 on the 28th, the Shanghai A-share index of China's A shares fell by 3.37%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index of China fell by 2.5%, and the Nikkei index fell by about 4%.
For the future trend of US stocks, the Great Wall Fund chief economist Xiang Weida is not so pessimistic. In an interview with a China News Agency reporter, he said that the current round of decline in U.S. stocks was caused by the double blow brought by the high valuation of U.S. stocks and the spread of the epidemic. There is an intensifying trend before financial markets overreact.
Xiang Weida believes that although there may still be a certain period of adjustment for U.S. stocks, there are no major problems in the fundamentals of the U.S. economy, and in a new round of industrial trends, including the new generation of information technology and new energy vehicle technology represented by 5G, the United States Both have competitive advantages; with regard to the impact of the epidemic, as US officials attach importance to it, it is believed that it will also be controlled, and investors need not worry too much.
In response to the impact of the Chinese stock market, Zhong Zhengsheng, chairman of Caixin think tank Monita Research, said that although A shares will inevitably be affected by external markets, the Chinese stock market is relatively more resilient.
In this regard, Xiang Weida also holds a similar view. He told Weida that the epidemic did have a great impact on China's economic growth in the first quarter, but the impact was generally short-term. As China's official policy of steady growth intensifies, other industries may accelerate growth after entering the second quarter, so that losses in the first quarter can be made up. Therefore, it is not necessary to be too pessimistic about China's economic growth throughout the year and the profits of listed companies in most industries. In addition, many measures taken by Chinese officials to maintain market liquidity may also make the stock market's capital more accommodative in the short term, thereby offsetting market concerns about the economy in the first quarter, and significantly increasing investor risk appetite.
However, remind Weida that the recent short-term gains in the A-share technology sector, especially the semiconductor sector, have been too large. Although semiconductors are undoubtedly the sector that should be the focus of attention in the long run, some stocks have already experienced valuation bubbles. Stocks may become a "heavy-hit zone" for declines, and investors should remain cautious. (Finish)