The European Commission has improved this Thursday a tenth, up to 1.6%, the forecast of growth for Spain in 2020. In this way, the data is aligned with that contemplated in the macroeconomic chart made public by the Government of Pedro Sánchez is same week No surprise That on Tuesday Nadia Calviño put 1.6% on the table was already a very clear clue of what was going to happen, since it would have been a shot in the foot to put a different estimate knowing that two days later in Brussels there would be projections. And more when Spain was significantly changing its fiscal adjustment path.

The European and Spanish authorities are in constant contact and Calviño did the most logical thing. The IMF, the OECD and the consensus of the analysts already pointed to the same result. Only the Bank of Spain (1.7%) and the Commission deviated slightly, above and below respectively. And in its latest forecasts, those of Autumn, Brussels has already recognized that perhaps it had been a bit harsh others by lowering four tenths its estimates for 2019 (from 2.3 to 1.9%), by not having when it did its exercise of the most updated indicators. In recent months, Madrid has been reducing its optimism and Brussels moderating its pessimism, until it finds itself in the middle.

"I can anticipate that they are very aligned with the vision of the Government, the growth of the economy, which has been very robust and very dynamic in recent years, will remain in 2020 above the countries of our environment and the average of the European Union, "said Minister Calviño this morning in statements to the Cope Chain collected by Europa Press.

Brussels calculations

The community report notes that "the expected slowdown of the Spanish economy in the second half of 2019 was smoother than anticipated, due to a small recovery in private consumption . The quarterly growth of real GDP was 0.4% in the third quarter of the year and 0.5% in the fourth, one and two tenths respectively higher than projected in our Fall projections.As a result, real GDP growth for 2019 has been revised up one tenth, up to 2% , says the text.

In this way, the calculation is that Spain grew by 2% last year, will be 1.6% in 2020 and 1.5% in 2021 . The Commission's Winter forecasts do not include deficit or debt tables, unlike those of Fall or Spring. They are just some pictures and descriptive paragraphs. "The composition of growth in the second half of 2019 also points to a stronger domestic demand and, therefore, to a slightly more positive outlook than previously anticipated. Growth is now expected to stabilize at a quarterly rate of approximately 0.4% in the forecast horizon As a result, the annual GDP growth forecast for 2020 and 2021 is also revised upwards, compared to that made in Autumn, by one tenth, up to 1.6% and 1 , 5%, "reads the report of the technicians.

Differences in the deficit

But the Commission and the Government agree on the growth rate for this year and the next one does not mean that they do so on the deficit, for example. The stability objectives announced by the Council of Ministers on Tuesday pointed to a 1.8% deficit at the end of 2020 , to decrease to 1.5% in 2021, 1.2% in 2022 and still remain in 0.9% in 2023.

The agreed previous path, which is technically the one in force because neither the European Commission nor the Eurogroup have pronounced (and will not do so until Spain submits its updated Budget draft) was much stricter, and contemplates 1.3% in 2019 and barely 0.5% in 2020 , but Calviño considered it already in July 2018 as "unreal" and impossible.

But the forecasts are also disparate. In Autumn, the latest calculation available, the Commission expected a closure for 2019 of 2.3% (half a point above the estimate of Spain), 2.2% in 2020 and 2.1% by 2021. And the institutions They warned that the required structural effort, which is 0.65% of GDP, was far from being fulfilled.

Lack of information

The small upward adjustment today for the three-year GDP growth data is due to the fact that in the last Fall Forecasts, the Commission made the cut on October 24 , and just one week later the accounting data were known national, that European sources then recognized that they had been "more positive" than they expected. "Seeing those numbers, maybe they could be revised a little upwards. We gave them 0.3% in the quarter and in the end it was 0.4%. Maybe that would give for a 2% growth figure for the year, remains to be seen. We do not rule out having it reviewed again, "explained technical sources. And it is exactly what happened. Therefore, the improvement of 2019 has led to a drag of that tenth to subsequent years.

"The growth forecast for this year of 1.6% is still well above the euro zone average and we have been growing for many years," said Calviño, who has acknowledged that the growth of the economy has slowed down regarding the 2015 highs due to the international environment and the economic cycle that is maturing. "It is normal for growth to slow down but it is remarkable that we continue to grow above the surrounding countries," said the minister this morning.

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