Little official data filters on the true level of the pensions once the system of points retirement, wanted by the government, will be set up. Le Monde had access to an “intermediate version” of the government's impact study. In these columns, the evening paper speaks of "very contrasting consequences depending on the business".
In this study, around twenty different scenarios are tested. For employees without children, the reform has no consequences, provided that we do not retire before the equilibrium age. For a continuous career at minimum wage, a person born in 1980 and who retires at age 65, the conversion rate (that is to say the percentage of the last salary received as pension) increases sharply in the new system : 70% against 59%, thanks to the new minimum pension.
Work longer
For someone with a full career but this ascending one the gain remains but is less important: the conversion rate reaches 62% against 60 in the current system. All of this indicates, however, that it will take a lot of work longer to take advantage of these gains.
For civil servants, the impact study also speaks of gains, especially for those whose progression at the end of their careers was low… But this includes the fact that those and those will have to retire much later, except some exemptions as in the police.
Support is always there
A big downside to all this: here is tested a pivotal age that does not move, around 65 years. However, in the coming decades, if the government text is to be believed, this age could gradually increase to 67 and over for the generations born in the 1990s. A notion which could largely change the situation and which risks '' draw critics to the credibility of the study.
Finally, note that a small majority of French people (51%) still express support (29%) or sympathy (22%) for the mobilization against the pension reform after more than forty days of strike, according to an Ifop survey published by the Sunday Journal . According to this survey carried out Thursday and Friday, that is to say after the withdrawal of the very disputed short-term measure which consisted in introducing a pivot age from 2022, the opinions favorable to this movement of a historical duration do not weaken.
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The survey was carried out by online self-administered questionnaire with a sample of 1,006 French people aged 18 and over whose representativeness was ensured by the quota method. Margin of error between 1.4 and 3.1 points.
- Economy
- Retirement
- Pension reform
- study