Two experts at the American Atlantic Council stated that oil markets are not expected to witness a rise in excess of $ 70 during the current period, explaining that oil markets did not react to the escalation of tensions in the region, and there was no significant increase in oil prices. They asserted that the United States secures some of its oil needs now, but it has nearly 20 years to reach self-sufficiency in oil.

This came in a discussion session organized by the Atlantic Council yesterday, which dealt with geopolitical developments, energy issues, and regional security, on the sidelines of the launch of the activities of the Fourth World Energy Forum 2020 in Abu Dhabi, which is held under the patronage of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, and me The era of Abu Dhabi, Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces.

The three-day forum is organized by the American Atlantic Council, in cooperation and partnership with the Ministry of Energy and Industry, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), Mubadala Investment, and Crescent Petroleum, based in Sharjah, as a co-Platinum President.

Rising prices

In detail, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and Chairman of the "Transversal Consulting" Allen Wald said, "It is not expected that the oil markets will witness a rise in excess of $ 70 a barrel during the current period," explaining that "the oil markets did not react to the escalation of tensions in the Gulf region." And there was no significant increase in oil prices, as there are no real imminent threats of war in the region. ”

She added, "It is not expected that there will be a large fluctuation or a significant increase or decrease in oil prices during the current period, as the market is witnessing an increase or decrease in supply and demand in a limited manner, which is about 4 or 5%", noting that oil prices jumped about 10 Dollars at the beginning of the crisis, then the price returned to decline again.

Short-term

A father noted that there is currently no impact on consumers of oil as a result of the crisis, and oil prices revolve in the short term around 60 to 70 dollars a barrel, and if they go up to between 80 and 100 dollars a barrel, this will mean the existence of great geopolitical pressures hanging over the region.

She pointed out that in the event of increased demand, an increase in production, unlike what was previously occurring, could occur, noting that Iraq meets part of the oil needs of the United States at the present time, especially after excluding Venezuela, given the existence of economic sanctions against it.

And it showed that the United States secures some of its needs now, and market conditions differ radically from those during the nineties and the beginning of the third millennium, when war was imminent in the region.

She pointed out that oil prices cannot be predicted in the medium and long term, because that depends on the production of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which meets in March, to assess the situation, determine production policy, the role of Russia, and other factors.

Oil supply

For its part, said the director of the "Scovecroft" Middle East initiative from the Atlantic Council, and the former first director for Arab Gulf affairs in the National Security Council under the administration of US President Donald Trump, Christine Fontenrose, that "the United States is interested and eager to stabilize the Middle East, not only because of oil supplies "But also to not allow opponents to threaten the stability of the region."

She added that «the United States has almost 20 years to reach complete self-sufficiency in oil», ruling out the American withdrawal from Iraq at least a year ago, given the developments taking place there, and clarified that the crisis occurring there gives an opportunity to end Iranian influence in Iraq and end the missile program Iranian.

Themes of the Forum

The main axes of the Fourth World Energy Forum 2020 in Abu Dhabi include defining the global landscape in energy security, and includes several sessions, dealing with the role of gas in energy transmission, and facing demographic challenges in the region, nuclear energy, energy security, and modern technologies.

The forum will also discuss commercial conflicts and their impact on access to energy, and review the future of "Murban crude", as the pricing mechanism of the new "Murban" crude constitutes an important step in the strategy of "ADNOC" to better market its products and expand its profit margins, in a move aimed at strengthening the position of the UAE A reliable global supplier of durable and stable energy supplies in the region and the world.