Economic Trend Index “Deteriorating” for Fourth Consecutive Month Production and Shipment of Machinery Slow January 10 at 16:12
In the index of economic trends last November, the index showing the current state of the economy was lower than the previous month, mainly due to the continuing slump in corporate production. As a result, the economic tone of the economy was “deteriorated” for the fourth consecutive month, indicating a high possibility of a recession.
The Economic Trend Index for the last November announced by the Cabinet Office was 95.1, with the “concordance index” indicating the current state of the economy as 100 for 2015.
The index fell 0.2 points compared to the previous month, the lowest level since February 2013 for the first time in six years and nine months.
This was mainly due to the slowdown in the production and shipment of machinery such as excavators due to a delay in the procurement of parts due to the impact of the typhoon last fall.
As for the employment situation, the ratio of job offers to applicants has leveled off, which has had a negative effect on the calculation of this index.
As a result, the underlying judgment of the economy, which is mechanically derived from the movement of the index, was “deteriorated”.
A decision of “deterioration” is defined as indicating a high likelihood of a recession, and it has been “deterioration” for four consecutive months.