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In Germany, the growth forecast for 2020 is revised downwards by the Bundesbank: 0.6% instead of 1.2% announced in June.
With our correspondent in Berlin, Pascal Thibaut
Cold blow or warming? Opinions diverge visibly between specialists. The German central bank is expecting a significant reduction in growth next year. It lowered its forecast by half, bringing it down to 0.6%, barely better than this year.
After a growth three times higher last year, the golden decade in Germany ended. The trade conflicts, the uncertainties related to Brexit, but also the difficulties of the automobile sector, - central in Germany -, harmed the Germanic economy. Domestic demand has allowed it to avoid the worst.
The Bundesbank, on the other hand, believes that the German economy will pick up colors from 2021. Several business institutes are more optimistic in the short term. They estimate that growth will double next year and the German economy stabilizes. In particular, they welcome the government's fiscal policy that lowers taxes and increases spending, thereby supporting domestic demand.
The same researchers point out, however, that the traditional drivers of the German economy, such as chemistry, machine tools and the automobile, still face difficulties. The latter sector has seen its production fall by 16% over the past year and a half, with negative consequences for employment.