- Forecasts: The OECD warns of zero unemployment reduction and also lowers the growth forecast for Spain
- European Commission.Brussels warns Spain of a "risk of significant deviation" in the Budgets for 2020
Spain was, during much of the recovery, the most advanced advanced country, as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) found; one of the economies of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development with greater vigor, as noted by the OECD itself; and, in short, an outstanding student as regards the rebound of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). But that is already past .
The forecasts that the Organization published yesterday confirm that Spain, with a 2% growth forecast for this year, is now at an average level within the OECD. But for next year, the Spanish economy will already be in the third of the least growing countries, a situation that will become more acute in 2021 . In both cases, the expected rebound is 1.6%, a figure that is not only far from the strong advances of India, China or Indonesia, but also behind countries such as the United States, Canada, Korea or even Greece, to those who until recently clearly surpassed.
This circumstance only confirms that Spain will enter a period of moderate growth, much lower than the 3% it reached and even exceed in 2015 or 2016, and also far from the 2% that exceeded comfortably in 2017 and 2018.
The consequences of this certain atony, which will still allow the country to grow more than the EU average, are not limited to GDP growth more or less. The Spanish economy, by its characteristics, needs vigorous rebounds to be able to create employment. Until the beginning of the crisis it was estimated that the minimum figure was 2%. After the recession, there is a broad consensus in stating that the level has moderated but that, in any case, that figure is still close to 1.5% and that below it would begin to destroy employment .
Destruction before full recovery?
For this reason, some economists are already warning of the possibility that Spain will once again destroy employment without recovering, much less, the level of pre-crisis unemployment. If it occurs, it will not be next year or the next year and in fact, the forecasts of the same OECD but also of the Bank of Spain is that unemployment will continue to reduce in that period of time although, yes, at very moderate rates.
But still, the possibility that the economy begins to destroy jobs in the medium term is real . And because of this, the same economists who warn of this situation point to the importance of the fact that the GDP registers more notable rebounds.
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